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RePEc

Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports. 808 featured so far, newest first.

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24 May 2023
  1. 9 Oct 2026

    Risk Appetite and Monetary Transmission

    The research shows Fed policy affects risk asset prices primarily through risk appetite shifts, not interest rates; transmission via risk appetite dwarfs rate-channel effects.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    4fanfare
  2. 9 Oct 2026

    Estimating Yield Impacts of Treasury Demand and Supply Changes

    A demand-system framework quantifies that $100 billion in Treasury supply raises five-year yields by roughly 3 basis points, with effects driven by changing foreign and hedge-fund participation.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  3. 9 Oct 2026

    Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Global Cycles

    A model shows U.S. Treasury collateral advantage drives dollar appreciation during stress and reconciles exorbitant privilege, financial intermediation, and convenience yield perspectives.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  4. 9 Oct 2026

    Monetary Policy and the Wealth Distribution

    Rate cuts initially reduce wealth inequality but increase it medium-term; housing drives effects at the bottom while equities drive them at the top.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  5. 9 Oct 2026

    Beyond Financial Conditions: Measuring Structural Vulnerabilities in the U.S. Financial System

    An index capturing structural financial weaknesses displays gradual buildup before crises, predicts shock amplification, and reveals delayed monetary policy transmission effects.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  6. 9 Oct 2026

    The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from Default Risk Using Firm-Level Data

    UK firm-level data shows relaxing credit frictions raises output by 25% and wages by 23%, with most gains from capital accumulation rather than reallocation.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  7. 9 Oct 2026

    AI Intensity and Financial Market Responses to Economic Shocks: Evidence from US Industries

    Industries with higher AI intensity show significantly higher returns and valuations when hit by supply and technology shocks but not demand shocks.

    RePEcML & AI Methods

    3fanfare
  8. 9 Oct 2026

    A Currency Premium Puzzle

    The paper proves that asset pricing models solving equity and risk-free rate puzzles fail to generate observed interest-rate differentials between risky and safe currencies.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  9. 9 Oct 2026

    The Implied Equity Term Structure

    Inferring expected returns from stock prices and cash flows reveals an upward-sloping equity term structure, but value and speculative-grade firms show flat or downward slopes.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  10. 9 Oct 2026

    Volatility Disagreement in the Options Market

    Cross-sectional dispersion in volatility forecasts predicts delta-hedged straddle losses of 5.14% per month, consistent with mispricing rather than risk compensation.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    3fanfare
  11. 9 Oct 2026

    What is the Impact of a Major Unconventional Monetary Policy Intervention?

    The ECB's "whatever it takes" announcement reversed euro area banks' risk appetite, reducing loan growth and credit risk, showing capitalization can curb lending during crises.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  12. 9 Oct 2026

    A Model of Global Firms and Capital Markets

    A quantified general-equilibrium model of 23,000 firms across 48 countries shows financial and trade liberalization concentrate activity in largest firms with larger gains for emerging economies.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  13. 9 Oct 2026

    Bankers’ Outside Options and Financial Risk

    Improved job opportunities for bankers increase non-investment-grade lending and borrower risk without compensating spreads, raising systemic risk through weakened workplace discipline.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  14. 9 Oct 2026

    Beliefs That Predict Returns and Beliefs That Attract Flows: Policy Insights and Sentiment Catering in Mutual Funds

    The study shows that mutual fund managers' policy beliefs predict market returns and explain positive alphas, while sentiment beliefs attract flows but lack predictive power.

    RePEcPortfolio & Allocation

    3fanfare
  15. 9 Oct 2026

    Drivers of Exchange Rates in EMDEs: Implications for Foreign Exchange Intervention

    A framework using deviations from interest-rate parity identifies when exchange-rate movements stem from financial shocks rather than fundamentals, aiding intervention decisions.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    3fanfare
  16. 9 Oct 2026

    From Tone to Trajectory: Continuous Sentiment and the Shape of Monetary Policy Communication (Martin Feldkircher, Márton Kardos, Kristoffer Laigaard Nielbo)

    The sequencing and emphasis of sentiment within central bank statements predict rate decisions and inflation expectations beyond average tone alone.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    3fanfare
  17. 9 Oct 2026

    Anatomy of a run: the Terra Luna Crash

    Granular blockchain data reveals the Terra crash resulted from subsidized money creation, real-time transaction visibility, and investor concentration amplifying financial fragility.

    RePEcCrypto & DeFi

    3fanfare
  18. 9 Oct 2026

    Beyond the HAR: A New Benchmark for Volatility Forecasting

    Fractional processes outperform discrete models like HAR for forecasting realized volatility at longer horizons by better balancing recent levels against long-run persistence.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  19. 9 Oct 2026

    The Taming of the Skew: Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy

    A model with time-varying skewness in cost-push shocks generates persistent stagflationary effects; optimal policy leans against the balance of inflation risks.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  20. 9 Oct 2026

    Energy and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

    A DSGE model reveals energy and exchange-rate shocks drive euro inflation volatility, and optimal policy can exploit the exchange-rate channel rather than looking through energy shocks.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  21. 9 Oct 2026

    Macro News in Market Moves: Classifying News through Asset Co-movements

    CLONE decomposes daily price moves into demand, productivity, inflation, and policy news using stocks, bonds, and inflation swaps; aggregate demand dominated until 2021.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  22. 9 Oct 2026

    Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

    Treasury yield curve slope volatility forecasts industrial production and employment growth at medium and long horizons, outperforming term spread alone after the 2008 crisis.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  23. 9 Oct 2026

    Adaptive Bayesian Shrinkage of High-Dimensional Panel VARs

    A Bayesian spike-and-slab method improves high-dimensional panel VAR forecasting and reveals heterogeneous spillover structures in sovereign bonds and macro data.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  24. 9 Oct 2026

    Where It All Begins: Eurodollars and International Monetary Policy Transmission under Bretton Woods

    US monetary tightening attracted capital through Eurodollar borrowing but did not transmit to foreign output, revealing continued financial segmentation despite offshore growth.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  25. 9 Oct 2026

    Interest Rate Transmission in Decentralized Finance: Evidence from Aave Lending Protocol

    The study finds that US risk-free rates predict stablecoin lending rates in decentralized finance, though transmission operates mainly through crypto-native factors like utilization.

    RePEcCrypto & DeFi

    2fanfare
  26. 9 Oct 2026

    Optimal Currency Strategies Under Deviations From Interest Parity

    Extending Campbell et al., the analysis shows empirically measured deviations from interest parity reverse optimal currency demands for emerging-market investors.

    RePEcPortfolio & Allocation

    2fanfare
  27. 9 Oct 2026

    Disappearing Dollar Convenience?

    Dollar safe asset convenience yields remain stable domestically since 2019 but decline globally relative to other currencies, with repo markets leading.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  28. 9 Oct 2026

    Housing Network Connectedness and Policy Spillovers: Evidence from a Time-Varying Parameter VAR Approach

    A time-varying VAR network reveals supply-inelastic coastal markets absorb largest regulatory shocks and spillovers persist to monetary conditions and inflation expectations.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  29. 9 Oct 2026

    What Volatility Reveals: Agnostic Identification of Exchange Rate and Treasury-Market Dynamics in Inconvenient Times

    Volatility and kurtosis reveal that dollar depreciation and rising Treasury yields reflect multiple distinct shocks rather than a single tariff announcement shock.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  30. 9 Oct 2026

    Perceived Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Professional Forecasters in Australia

    Time-varying beliefs about the central bank's reaction function collapsed at the zero bound and rose only after observed tightening, not from guidance alone.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  31. 2 Oct 2026

    Corporate bond pricing in the AI era

    Using ChatGPT's launch as a natural experiment, the paper finds that hyperscalers saw borrowing costs decline while software firms faced worse terms as debt markets repriced AI winners and losers.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    4fanfare
  32. 2 Oct 2026

    The macroeconomic effects of AI technology shocks

    AI-intensive patents generate delayed productivity and employment gains alongside falling consumer prices, with substantially larger aggregate effects than broader ICT shocks but reducing labor share and increasing wealth inequality.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    4fanfare
  33. 2 Oct 2026

    The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Loan Book

    The paper shows that monetary policy reduces perceived tail risk for bank equity, encouraging banks to originate riskier loans to commercial and industrial borrowers.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  34. 2 Oct 2026

    Transformer-based CoVaR: Systemic Risk in Textual Information

    Integrating financial news embeddings from large language models with market data, the study improves systemic risk forecasts using conditional value-at-risk without requiring large datasets.

    RePEcLLMs & Text

    3fanfare
  35. 2 Oct 2026

    A SPOT in the dark: using AI to assess financial stability risks

    Large Language Models extract signals about potential trigger events from financial news, improving forward-looking estimates of downside risks and helping monitor financial stability threats ahead of major events.

    RePEcML & AI Methods

    3fanfare
  36. 2 Oct 2026

    The Uncertainty Channel of Monetary Policy Communication

    The study shows that increased Federal Reserve communication lowers monetary policy uncertainty and generates substantial real effects: industrial production rises 0.3 percent and unemployment falls 0.2 percentage points within two months.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    3fanfare
  37. 2 Oct 2026

    Bank Dollarization, Lending Behavior and Real Effects

    The study shows that banks with high foreign exchange risk reduce lending to both exposed and unexposed firms after exchange rate shocks, with measurable real effects on small and medium enterprises.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  38. 2 Oct 2026

    Testing Whether Volatility Model Gains Persist: A Prespecified Holdout in Tail Risk Forecasting

    Testing eight volatility models on equity indices with prespecified holdout periods, the research finds that gains from more complex models often do not persist across markets or time.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    3fanfare
  39. 2 Oct 2026

    The implications of AI for monetary policy: a first assessment

    The paper assesses how artificial intelligence affects monetary policy transmission and central bank reactions, finding AI could improve risk assessment and communication but may also amplify systemic vulnerabilities and herding dynamics.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  40. 2 Oct 2026

    Artificial Intelligence and the Indian Sovereign Yield Curve: Empirical Evidence in Times of Macroeconomic Turmoil.

    Post-AI adoption, longer-maturity Indian bond yields show reduced sensitivity to expected inflation and money supply growth, while short-term yields exhibit heightened inflation sensitivity, suggesting structural transmission changes.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  41. 2 Oct 2026

    Green is the new black

    U.S. green bond share declined from 1.7 to 0.6 percent after Trump's re-election and Paris Agreement withdrawal, with the greenium turning positive.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  42. 2 Oct 2026

    The Labor Market Effects of AI Automation and Augmentation

    AI automation reduces occupational employment by 21 percent with little wage effect, while AI augmentation raises wages by 8 percent, revealing that AI's labor impact depends on the balance between these opposing channels.

    RePEcML & AI Methods

    3fanfare
  43. 2 Oct 2026

    One dollar, many prices: dealer-specific pricing of synthetic dollar funding

    Comparing FX forwards in identical currency pairs and maturities, the study finds large pricing variation across dealers reflecting clientele and pricing power rather than funding costs.

    RePEcTrading, Microstructure & Execution

    2fanfare
  44. 2 Oct 2026

    The implied volatility surface (also) is path-dependent

    The research shows that past asset price trajectories predict implied volatility movements up to two years forward, with a parsimonious SSVI model capturing this path-dependent behavior.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    2fanfare
  45. 2 Oct 2026

    A New Approach to Estimating Portfolio-Balance Models of the Yield Curve

    Proposes a two-step estimator to recover portfolio-balance model parameters from Gaussian term structure models, identifying shocks to hedging risk premiums and risk-bearing capacity.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  46. 2 Oct 2026

    Repo Markets and the Fed's Balance Sheet: Implications for Monetary Policy Implementation

    The paper examines how Federal Reserve balance sheet changes affect overnight Treasury repo markets and the transmission of monetary policy through money markets.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  47. 2 Oct 2026

    Diagnosing and Stabilizing Dynamic Correlations in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

    Decomposing forecasting losses into correlation versus scale components, the paper shows how to diagnose and stabilize dynamic-correlation volatility models using realized-volatility inputs.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    2fanfare
  48. 2 Oct 2026

    One advisor for the whole world? Cross-country evidence on financial advice from large language models

    Large language models provide nearly identical portfolio advice across twenty-one countries despite local differences, following retail finance conventions rather than academic prescriptions and ignoring household balance sheets.

    RePEcLLMs & Text

    2fanfare
  49. 2 Oct 2026

    Learn the measure, estimate the moment: machine-learned drivers in dynamic conditional correlation models

    Combining machine-learned forecasts of realized measures with dynamic conditional correlation models improves correlation matrix forecasts, producing valid predictions and beating realized-driver baselines across multiple horizons.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    2fanfare
  50. 2 Oct 2026

    Financial frictions and firms’ capital composition: a structural estimation of firms’ borrowing constraints for the UK

    UK firm-level analysis shows that interest rate spreads are less sensitive to capital-to-debt ratios for firms with higher intangible intensity, suggesting intangibles are less effective collateral than tangible assets.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  51. 2 Oct 2026

    Solvency and systemic risk of European life insurers

    The research distinguishes solvency risk from systemic risk in European life insurers, finding growing systemic risk exposure since 2007 and evidence of interconnectedness with banks that intensifies during financial stress.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  52. 2 Oct 2026

    Financial Crisis Cycles

    A theoretical model shows that debt accumulation during booms delays post-crash recovery through debt overhang and coordination failures, with debt restructuring conditional on recapitalization being more efficient than unconditional subsidies.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  53. 2 Oct 2026

    What makes Monetary Policy More Powerful? A Big Data Approach

    Analysis of a large macro-financial dataset ranks non-linear monetary transmission channels, finding transmission to long-term rates weakens at high interest rates and high credit growth, with sovereign risk mattering in the euro area.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  54. 2 Oct 2026

    Price Conflict and US Stock Return Volatility Forecasting: Insights from over 150 Years with a Mixed-Frequency Framework

    The GARCH-MIDAS model incorporating a quarterly news-based Price Conflict Index outperforms benchmarks for forecasting US stock volatility over 150 years of monthly and daily data.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  55. 2 Oct 2026

    The Cov-lite Liquidity Advantage, Regulatory Pressures, and the Evolution of the Leveraged Loan Market

    Post-GFC, banks facing stricter regulation increased cov-lite loan issuances due to liquidity advantages that lower credit spreads, particularly for private firms seeking easier asset sales.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  56. 2 Oct 2026

    Locking in the rate or staying flexible? Mortgage refinancing around an interest rate shock

    The study finds that UK borrowers shifted toward two-year fixed mortgages despite higher pricing after the 2022 rate shock, seeking flexibility and rate protection rather than minimizing immediate costs.

    RePEcPortfolio & Allocation

    2fanfare
  57. 2 Oct 2026

    Measuring the Effects of US Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises on Exchange Rates across Monetary Conditions

    The research shows that both large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance appreciate foreign currencies against the dollar, with guidance having larger effects, especially during zero lower bound periods.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  58. 2 Oct 2026

    Geopolitical risk and emerging market sovereign risk premia

    The study finds that geopolitical risk raises sovereign credit spreads in emerging markets, with threats having larger effects than acts, and responses shifting substantially after the Ukraine invasion.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    2fanfare
  59. 2 Oct 2026

    The Innovator's Risk Premium: Sticky Hurdle Rates, the Cost of Capital, and Creative Destruction

    The research shows that firms' hurdle rates exceed their financial cost of capital due to innovation risk and imperfect pledgeability, explaining weak productivity growth and declining business dynamism.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    2fanfare
  60. 2 Oct 2026

    Zero-Shot Conditional Forecasting and the Information Content of Central Bank Paths

    A pre-trained time-series model reading central bank published paths cuts forecast errors better than the banks themselves and hard-conditioned VARs, revealing exploitable institutional differences.

    RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

    2fanfare
  61. 25 Sep 2026

    Assessing the Benefits of Optimized Agentic AI Systems for Asset Pricing

    Optimized AI systems analyzing earnings call transcripts double explained variation in stock returns versus standard benchmarks while improving interpretability through human-readable decision rules.

    RePEcML & AI Methods

    4fanfare
  62. 25 Sep 2026

    Stablecoins Meet the Mundell–Fleming Trilemma

    Wallet-level stablecoin data shows crisis countries experience inflows during banking restrictions; this endogenizes capital mobility and tightens monetary policy constraints.

    RePEcCrypto & DeFi

    4fanfare
  63. 25 Sep 2026

    Skewness Risk Premia and the Cross-Section of Currency Returns

    Using model-free skewness measures from currency options, the study shows that skewness risk is priced in currency returns and explains variation across a broad cross-section of currency portfolios.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  64. 25 Sep 2026

    The Global Credit Cycle

    A nonlinear factor constructed from credit spreads and equity volatility prices global corporate bond returns, explaining up to 13% of three-month-ahead return variation across markets.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  65. 25 Sep 2026

    Asset Embeddings

    The paper shows that portfolio holdings contain all information needed for asset pricing and develops asset embeddings analogous to word embeddings to represent firms and predict valuations.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  66. 25 Sep 2026

    Pricing Risk Globally: Intermediary Constraints, the Dollar, and the Global Financial Cycle

    A two-country model shows that uncertainty shocks tighten intermediary constraints, widening credit spreads, appreciating the dollar, and raising currency risk premia globally.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  67. 25 Sep 2026

    Carry Trade and Currency Crash Risk

    Focusing on dollar-lira trading, the paper shows that higher crash risk significantly increases carry trade expected returns, accounting for 46–77% of compensation through Shapley decomposition.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  68. 25 Sep 2026

    Predicting Financial Market Stress with Machine Learning

    Tree-based machine learning models predict the full distribution of financial market stress 27% better than traditional time-series methods, with macro uncertainty and monetary policy expectations as key drivers.

    RePEcML & AI Methods

    3fanfare
  69. 25 Sep 2026

    The credit channel of monetary policy: direct survey evidence from UK firms

    UK firm survey data validates that external borrowers face larger cost-of-capital increases and cut investment more than internal funders when rates rise, accounting for a quarter of monetary policy's total effect.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  70. 25 Sep 2026

    Innovation, financial frictions, and persistent effects of monetary policy

    Monetary tightening reduces R&D more sharply among firms lacking cash-flow-based borrowing, generating persistent 0.12% output loss that younger, high-patent firms bear disproportionately.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  71. 25 Sep 2026

    Ex Machina: Financial Stability in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

    Q-learning and large language model investors generate systematically different behaviors in fund redemption settings, with Q-learning showing excessive coordination and amplified fragility under default risk.

    RePEcML & AI Methods

    3fanfare
  72. 25 Sep 2026

    Elastic in cash, inelastic in repo: Hedge funds in the treasury and repo markets

    Using German sovereign bond repo data, the research shows hedge funds are price-elastic in cash markets but highly inelastic in repo, inheriting elasticity from their cash-market counterparties.

    RePEcTrading, Microstructure & Execution

    3fanfare
  73. 25 Sep 2026

    HKC05 - Household Portfolios, Corporate Leverage, and the Supply Side of Monetary Policy

    Corporate leverage affects how monetary tightening transmits to the real economy: equity holders lose wealth while safe-asset holders are cushioned, raising the sacrifice ratio.

    RePEcPortfolio & Allocation

    3fanfare
  74. 25 Sep 2026

    Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial Constraints

    Swedish data reveals that financially constrained firms adjust prices less to monetary shocks, materially dampening aggregate inflation response to policy changes.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  75. 25 Sep 2026

    Capturing Heterogeneity: Machine Learning Approaches to Implied Volatility Forecasting

    Tree-based models partition the option surface by moneyness and maturity to forecast volatility, reducing one-month-ahead errors by 13 percent versus benchmark models.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    3fanfare
  76. 25 Sep 2026

    Capital flows and exchange rates: A quantitative assessment of the dilemma hypothesis

    In response to US monetary tightening, financial channels dominate for small open economies: credit spreads widen and output falls despite currency depreciation.

    RePEcMacro-Finance & Rates

    3fanfare
  77. 25 Sep 2026

    Rate Risk and Rate Insurance

    Stock returns are dampened by rate insurance: falling rates cushion payoff risk in bad times while rising rates in good times hedge duration exposure.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    3fanfare
  78. 25 Sep 2026

    Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks, Bonds (and Options), Redux

    The research identifies common risk factors spanning stocks, corporate bonds, and options linked to economic indicators, revealing significant market segmentation and cross-asset hedging opportunities.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    2fanfare
  79. 25 Sep 2026

    Credit Card Banking

    Analysis of 550 million US credit card accounts shows that despite high charge-off rates, card lenders earn 1.5% alpha and 6.8% return on assets through pricing power and non-interest income.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  80. 25 Sep 2026

    Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure

    A database of 3,984 historical US bank runs shows runs are more likely in weak banks but often occur in strong banks; failures concentrate in fundamentally weak institutions.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    3fanfare
  81. 25 Sep 2026

    Taming Volatility, Feeding Crashes: Evidence from Algorithmic Trading in China's Agricultural Futures Markets

    The study finds that algorithmic trading lowers realized volatility but increases tail co-movement and asymmetry in China's corn and soybean futures markets.

    RePEcTrading, Microstructure & Execution

    2fanfare
  82. 25 Sep 2026

    LASH Risk and Interest Rates

    The study measures liquidity risk from solvency hedging in sterling repo and swaps, finding that pre-crisis LASH risk predicted pension fund bond sales during the 2022 UK market stress.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  83. 25 Sep 2026

    Sovereign vs. Corporate Debt and Default: More Similar Than You Think

    Analysis of 20 years of US junk bonds and emerging market sovereign debt reveals surprisingly similar average returns, Sharpe ratios, default frequencies, and haircuts across the two asset classes.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  84. 25 Sep 2026

    How Economic News Drives Implied Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets

    Financial and macroeconomic news topics systematically predict implied volatility in corn and soybean markets, with program trading and 2008 crisis topics most robust at short horizons.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    2fanfare
  85. 25 Sep 2026

    Exogenous Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premia in Agricultural Commodity Markets

    Traders place 15% weight on USDA crop reports relative to private priors when forming price expectations, with this anchoring weight rising when private analyst disagreement increases.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & Factors

    2fanfare
  86. 25 Sep 2026

    Collateral policy surprises

    Expansionary central bank collateral policy surprises reduce bank default risk and volatility while compressing government bond spreads, transmitting effects distinctly from asset purchases.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  87. 25 Sep 2026

    Adaptive LASSO-MGARCH for Multivariate Volatility Forecasting

    Introducing coefficient-specific penalization into multivariate GARCH equations reduces complexity and improves out-of-sample covariance forecasts across bonds, equities, and commodities.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    2fanfare
  88. 25 Sep 2026

    Pension Liquidity Risk

    Dutch pension funds use interest rate swaps more aggressively when underfunded, exposing themselves to margin calls exceeding 6% of assets and forcing procyclical sales of government bonds.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  89. 25 Sep 2026

    A theory of bank liquidity requirements

    The study develops a general equilibrium model of financial intermediation showing that liquidity regulation alone cannot achieve efficient allocations and requires complementary policies like bank size limits.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  90. 25 Sep 2026

    Systemic at Home: the Persistence of a Too-Big-to-Fail Premium in Europe

    European banks with assets exceeding half of home GDP enjoy at least 30 percent lower credit spreads, and this implicit subsidy persists and depends on sovereign fiscal strength.

    RePEcRisk, Credit & Banking

    2fanfare
  91. 27 Oct 2025

    Forecast Disagreement & Risk Premia

    Disagreement in macro forecasts raises risk premia: consumption disagreement hurts overall stock returns, while productivity disagreement particularly damages small, low-profit firms.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & FactorsFeatured 14×

    5shares
  92. 27 Oct 2025

    Target-Benefit Pension Optimization with Jumps

    Provides closed-form rules for the best benefit payouts and investment choices for a target‑benefit pension fund facing continuous and jump risks to maximize expected utility.

    RePEcOtherFeatured 9×

    5shares
  93. 27 Oct 2025

    Early Exercise and Put Risk Premia

    Accounting for optimal early exercise, American puts show less negative raw returns but more negative delta‑hedged returns than European puts, changing which option anomalies look profitable.

    RePEcAsset Pricing & FactorsFeatured 8×

    4shares
  94. 27 Oct 2025

    Sustainable Returns and Long-Horizon Metrics

    Defines a “sustainable return” (a withdrawal rate that preserves real capital) and shows that return-sequence risk and reinvesting interim cashflows are key for long-term outcomes beyond simple short-period averages.

    RePEcOtherFeatured 8×

    4shares
  95. 27 Oct 2025

    Gamified Emotion Crowdsourcing

    The J-Plus gamified app collects emotional speech to train better emotion-recognition systems while teaching and motivating users.

    RePEcOtherFeatured 8×

    4shares
  96. 27 Oct 2025

    Abstract Classification: SVM vs BERT vs GPT-3.5

    SVM vs BERT vs GPT-3.5: Compares SVM, SPECTER, BERT, and GPT-3.5 for classifying abstracts: BERT performs best, while GPT-3.5 is inconsistent with limited training data.

    RePEcLLMs & TextFeatured 8×

    4shares
  97. 27 Oct 2025

    Spanish Anti-Abortion Networks on Twitter

    Spanish anti-abortion Twitter groups are male-led, show hateful content, and coordinate around religion and right-wing politics.

    RePEcOtherFeatured 8×

    4shares
  98. 27 Oct 2025

    Demand Forecasting for New Fashion

    Fashion product demand is hard to predict, but machine learning—especially deep learning and ensembles—can make forecasts more accurate.

    RePEcEconometrics & ForecastingFeatured 8×

    4shares
  99. 24 Oct 2025

    Reinforcement Learning for Hedging

    The article introduces a novel application of reinforcement learning for efficiently managing a portfolio of over-the-counter derivatives, independent of any model.

    RePEcDerivatives & Volatility

    91shares
  100. 24 Oct 2025

    HighFrequency Trading Impact

    The paper discusses the effects of high-frequency trading on market factors like volatility, transaction costs, and liquidity, indicating varied opinions in the financial sector.

    RePEcTrading, Microstructure & Execution

    90shares

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