RePEc
RePEc
Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports. 928 featured so far, newest first.
- Featured
- 928
- Tracked on Semantic Scholar
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- Cited 100+
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- Since
- 24 May 2023
- 6 Nov 20264fanfare
Explaining Realized Returns: Roll’s R2 40 Years Later
Wall Street Journal market summaries explain 30-40% of daily and monthly returns out of sample when filtered for stated reasons, compared to under 10% for macro variables.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 6 Nov 20264fanfare
Behind the curve: Reassessing inflation risks with a High-dimensional Distributional VAR (HiDVAR)
HiDVAR, a data-rich distributional framework, improves inflation tail-risk assessment by 28% in CRPS relative to standard benchmarks and performs well in real-time evaluation.
- 6 Nov 20264fanfare
Stablecoin Architecture, Digital Dollarization, and the New Triffin Dilemma
Model shows that stablecoin design cannot remove peripheral currency risk but redeploys it; a new Triffin dilemma emerges where the issuer's capital must grow with its open position.
RePEcCrypto & DeFi
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
When Words Are Not Enough: Emotional Spillovers from Fed Chair Communication to Global Financial Markets
Facial and textual emotions from Fed Chair press conferences generate immediate effects on foreign exchange and equity returns, with non-additive cross-modal interactions.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Multilingual Textual Signals and Realized Volatility Forecasting: A Hybrid Transformer-HAR-X Approach Applied to the S&P 500 and the MASI
A hybrid FinBERT-HAR-X framework using multilingual news reduces S&P 500 volatility forecast error by 21% and improves realized Sharpe ratios out of sample.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
The market's mirror: Revealing investor disagreement with LLMS
Using LLM personas, disagreement over news headlines predicts trading volume, with income and education disagreement most predictive and fundamentals generating least disagreement.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
When Cash Flows Turn Negative: Liquidity-Driven Selling by Pension Funds
U.S. pension funds facing negative cash flows sell equities as primary liquidity source rather than rebalancing, absorbing $0.67 per dollar of shock through equity sales.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
The Impact of Central Bank Stock Purchases: Evidence from Discontinuities in Policy Rules
Using policy-rule discontinuities, the study finds BOJ stock purchases raise long-term rates but lift prices only after yield curve control pegged rates at zero.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Central Bank Independence and Sovereign Borrowing
Tighter statutory constraints on central bank lending to government reduce real borrowing costs in developing economies while raising debt-to-GDP, with effects strongest where credibility gains matter most.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Wars, Threats, and the Sovereign Bond Market
Analysis of 300,000 monthly bond prices since 1822 shows wars lower external bond returns by five percentage points and raise default risk, while military threats depress threatened states' borrowing costs.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Consumers' Attention to Monetary Policy: The Importance of Having "Skin in the Game"
Survey of 170,000 consumers shows that attention to monetary policy is driven by incentives; those planning major purchases are significantly more attentive to interest rate news.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Improving inflation forecasting by modeling expectation de-anchoring in low-inflation periods
A model allowing expectations to shift to a low-inflation equilibrium cuts forecast errors roughly 50 percent versus central bank projections for euro area core inflation in the 2010s.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Causal State-Dependent Local Projections
The study develops nonparametric local projections to identify how economic shocks affect outcomes differently across states, uncovering a hump-shaped investment response to monetary policy that linear methods understate.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
News shocks and inflation: theory and evidence from large oil discoveries
Large oil discoveries with production lags of five years show that anticipated future output raises core inflation a decade ahead, with effects concentrated in nontradables under fixed exchange rates.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Natural Disasters, Adaptation and Default Risk
A sovereign default model shows that high borrowing costs and debt overhang depress public adaptation spending, yet adaptation yields the largest welfare gains when financing is tightest near default.
- 6 Nov 20263fanfare
Affective Sensitivity and Inflation Expectations across the Income Distribution
Lower-income households form inflation beliefs two and a half times more sensitive to their emotional state than higher-income households, affecting expectations substantially independent of fundamentals.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Target and Path Surprises in Brazil: Monetary Policy Announcements, Yield Curves, and Inflation Expectations
Analysis of COPOM announcements reveals target and path surprises move the yield curve differently, with nonlinear effects and sign asymmetries in inflation expectation responses.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Financial Conditions and U.S. Macro Tail Risk
Adding financial conditions to macro forecasts raises recession tail probabilities and lowers growth quantiles, though out-of-sample forecast improvement is inconsistent.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Artificial Intelligence and Financial Tail Risks
AI-scenario contributions to financial-sector tail risk vary substantially by country, with downside asymmetry in Europe and the UK but limited impact in North America.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy: Disentangling Firm Heterogeneity
The study estimates the full distribution of firms' investment responses to monetary policy using clustering regression, finding only 5 percent of firm-time observations show strong sensitivity.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Domestic Debt Restructuring, Central Bank, and Monetary Policy in EMDEs: Lessons from Recent Country Cases
Analysis of 17 domestic debt restructurings reveals that monetary transmission often fails to recover post-restructuring due to balance-sheet constraints across sovereigns, central banks, and financial institutions.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Stress in the Press or Stress in the Market: A New Measure of Perceived Financial Stress
A news-based stress index for Canada reveals that perceived financial stress operates through household precautionary behavior, independently of market-based financial shocks.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Bank liquidity regulation and the growth of private credit
The liquidity coverage ratio significantly boosts private credit growth in counties with more LCR-subject banks, an effect comparable in magnitude to 2012 capital requirement increases.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Government Debt and the Fiscal Channels of Monetary Policy
Analytical framework shows how debt size, composition, and fiscal rules drive three channels—debt service, debt composition, and fiscal cyclicality—that amplify or dampen monetary policy effects.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Demand roars, supply whispers: Monetary policy and housing in Canada
Rate increases substantially reduce house prices and mortgage purchases, with housing starts and permits falling slowly, suggesting demand responds more sharply than supply.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
How Costly Are Cross-Border Payments for Firms?
Analysis of quoted prices reveals that banks charge firms 2-3.5% for cross-border payments, with foreign exchange margins dominating costs and substantial price dispersion across banks for identical corridors.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Commercial Real Estate Uncertainty
A new uncertainty index for commercial real estate predicts prices and construction spending and accounts for 46 percent of spending forecast errors, outperforming existing uncertainty measures.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Timing matters: Seasonal anomalies in interest rate pass-through
The research finds that euro-area banks transmit interest rate changes more slowly to lending rates in the fourth quarter during tightening, consistent with year-end volume targets.
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Stablecoin-on-Creditor Violence
New U.S. legislation grants stablecoins superpriority in bankruptcy, allowing distressed issuers to subordinate existing creditors and shift losses to depositors before any filing occurs.
RePEcCrypto & DeFi
- 6 Nov 20262fanfare
Performance Persistence in Private Equity: Skill, Structure, and Statistical Artefacts
Literature review finds genuine skill in private equity performance persistence, especially in venture capital, but shows estimates often weaken under stricter methods and richer data.
- 30 Oct 20264fanfare
150 years of U.S. inflation expectations
A narrative intensity measure from New York Times articles since 1870 predicts inflation better than commodity-based measures and reveals that the 1930s deflation was anticipated earlier than consensus suggests.
- 30 Oct 20264fanfare
US monetary policy spillovers through global commercial real estate
Research reveals that US quantitative easing raises global commercial real estate prices and credit, with spillback effects amplified through trade linkages and cross-border investor ownership.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
A Model of U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle
A general equilibrium model shows US monetary tightening erodes currency-mismatched arbitrageurs' wealth, raising global risk premia and generating spillovers to international asset prices.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Offshore forwards and exchange rate transmission in emerging markets
Transaction-level data from centrally cleared NDFs shows offshore order flow moves both forward and spot rates, with a $1 billion long-USD order depreciating the spot by roughly 10 basis points.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Firms' Investment and the Real Transmission of the Global Financial Cycle
The study shows that rising risk premia trigger large investment contractions, especially among risky firms, through a channel linking global price of risk to financing costs via firm debt sensitivity.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Are stablecoins and bank deposits substitutes?
Stablecoin growth slows roughly 3.75 percentage points per standard-deviation rise in deposit rates, with effects three times larger using instrumental variables and stronger for USDC than USDT.
RePEcCrypto & DeFi
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Pricing Power in the Mortgage Market: Evidence from GSE Fee Waivers
Mortgage intermediaries capture over 60% of $1.5 billion in GSE fee waivers; loan officers with histories of pricing expensive mortgages pass through less than 20% of savings.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Does shareholder diversification enhance firm investment resilience? Evidence from the euro area
Firms with home-biased shareholders cut investment 20% more than diversified peers during the pandemic, revealing equity concentration weakens corporate resilience to shocks.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
It Matters Who Gets Automated: Monetary Policy in an AI Economy
A model shows monetary policy amplifies more when AI automates some workers but not others, because shielded workers' higher wages generate additional demand.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Credit Markets with New Screening Technologies
When screening errors correlate through shared AI systems, lenders specialize into distinct market segments with uniform rates or uniform quality but dispersed rates.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Beyond monetary policy: Macroprudential responses to inflationary shocks
Pre-emptive, countercyclical macroprudential tools strengthen banking resilience and dampen external shocks in a monetary union, while procyclical tightening worsens outcomes.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
The Sovereign Constraint: Sentiment, Markets, and the Limits of Foreign Policy
A framework shows how domestic political polarization shifts both portfolio demand in sovereign bond markets and government incentives in crises, creating a sentiment-driven constraint on confrontational foreign policy.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
DSGE Models in Central Banks: Progress and Prospects
A comprehensive review traces how DSGE models became standard policy tools and assesses their value for connecting theory, data and policy experiments despite known limitations.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Financial Inclusion: A Meta-analytic Evidence from Global Research
Meta-analysis of 5,172 estimates finds robust evidence for technology and infrastructure as drivers of financial inclusion, while publication bias distorts reported effects across studies.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage? A global supply-chain perspective
Causal evidence shows the EU emissions scheme drives an 8% rise in intermediate-goods imports from non-regulated countries, with 11% higher embodied carbon in manufacturing.
- 30 Oct 20263fanfare
Climate Risk Spillovers and Sovereign Financing
Global value chains transmit climate risk to sovereigns: ignoring foreign climate spillovers underestimates total risk by 30% and raises measured borrowing costs by 11 basis points.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Monitoring banks’ vulnerabilities using stressed depletion indices
Two new indicators track euro-area banking vulnerabilities using stress tests: one measures capital depletion under tail risk, the other assesses earnings capacity to absorb losses.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Domestic and foreign insurer corporate bond demand and monetary policy
UK monetary tightening raises domestic insurer demand for corporate bonds but reduces foreign demand, creating asymmetric effects driven by regulation and liability structures.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Competing rails for crossborder payments: banks, fintechs, and stablecoins
Fintech money-transfer operators have compressed cross-border payment costs relative to banks; stablecoins do not eliminate frictions across corridors and payment values.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Carbon Neutrality Commitment Announcements and Subsequent Stock Returns
Market analysis of 887 carbon neutrality announcements reveals statistically significant negative abnormal returns over 12 months, suggesting investors view pledges as signals of future cost burdens.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Deep Learning Models in Central Bank Forecasting
Pretrained time-series foundation models match or outperform benchmarks on selected inflation and nowcasting targets but add limited gains for labor-market aggregates or irregular series.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Energy Supply Shocks and Inflation Expectations: A Functional Var Approach
Using German survey data, the paper finds that oil and gas supply shocks shift inflation expectations rightward and increase disagreement, with households overestimating inflationary effects.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Firm Heterogeneity and the Response of Investment to Monetary Policy
The research documents that most firms respond little to interest rate changes, but some show strong sensitivity; substantial heterogeneity cannot be easily explained by standard firm traits.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Assessing Monetary Policy Globally: Evidence from LLMs and Semi-structural Models
The paper employs large language models and semi-structural models to evaluate central bank communication and its role in shaping policy expectations.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration
Sovereign credit ratings overweight debt relative to primary balances, understate the role of growth, and exhibit large unexplained country-specific effects.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Chasing El Dorado: gold under shifting geopolitical and financial conditions
Geopolitical risks increase gold returns more strongly during loose financial conditions via credit and liquidity channels, with the largest impact in 2024–26.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
State-dependent pricing, de-anchored expectations, and the cost of looking through inflation shocks
The research finds that price-adjustment behavior and de-anchored household expectations interact super-additively to raise inflation costs, compounding risks when both channels activate.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
The Power of Persistence How Demand Shocks and Monetary Policy Shape Macroeconomic Outcomes
The study shows that in New Keynesian models, more persistent demand shocks do not always boost output more; monetary policy stance determines whether permanent income or real interest rate effects dominate.
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Do AI Assistants Reinforce Investor Beliefs? Evidence from Human and AI Replies
AI-generated investment replies are systematically more bullish than human replies on Reddit; instruction-tuning amplifies bullishness beyond the base model's inherent bias.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 30 Oct 20262fanfare
Working Paper 284
Using Austrian firm data, tighter monetary policy reduces productivity-enhancing investment and firm total factor productivity, with stronger effects among highly leveraged firms.
- 23 Oct 20264fanfare
The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel
Using stock market data to measure AI's effect on software engineering productivity, the study estimates AI raised expected productivity by 32.6% and GDP by 3.6% to 6.5% through end-2025.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 23 Oct 20264fanfare
Human Capital in Venture Capital: Evidence From 100, 000 Venture Capitalists
Over 100,000 VC professionals show extreme concentration: 5% generate 90% of profits, with superstar status increasing access to high-quality deal flow.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Do Markets Dream of Artificial Intelligence? Macroeconomic Effects and International Spillovers of AI News Shocks
The research identifies AI news shocks from equity factors and shows they trigger investment-led US growth but create monetary dilemmas via imported inflation in the euro area.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Pledgeable Collateral, Dealer Leverage, and Runs
The paper shows that strengthening collateral pledgeability can paradoxically fuel leverage and instability, confirmed by exploiting the 2005 bankruptcy reform's expansion of repo safe harbors.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Urgency, Liquidity, and the Price of Convenience
A monetary asset pricing model estimates the convenience yield of liquidity at 5.1% annually, roughly ten times conventional measures, with only 24% attributable to urgency.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Returns to Private Debt in Emerging and Developing Economies
Analysis of 4,109 loans totaling $115 billion reveals that post-crisis private debt in emerging economies outperforms both emerging-market bonds and Treasuries with public market equivalents above 1.02.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Large Language Models as Voting Mechanisms
The study proves that large language models function as voting rules and identifies millions of Condorcet cycles in ChatGPT investment recommendations, creating potential money-pump vulnerabilities.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Limits to Arbitrage and Prediction Market Efficiency: the Case of PredictIt
Analysis of PredictIt shows that limiting investor stakes to $850 per contract undermines price accuracy, with bid prices persistently implying arbitrage profits even after fees.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Evidence from a multi-country survey shows that heterogeneous beliefs about how monetary policy works significantly alter households' consumption responses to rate changes.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Financial Innovation and the International Monetary System
Dollar-backed payment stablecoins and tokenization likely reinforce dollar dominance despite reducing transaction frictions, with multipolarity potentially increasing fragility.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Financing the AI Buildout
Estimates show a 188 GW U.S. AI campus buildout requires nearly $9 trillion through 2032, shifting toward leases, joint ventures, and structures that raise leverage and opacity.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
Research finds that rising import exposure accounts for roughly 40 percent of U.S. Phillips curve flattening since 1976, with major implications for monetary policy trade-offs.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
From Importer to Exporter: Oil Shocks and the U.S. Economy
The shale revolution shifted how oil supply shocks affect the U.S. economy: contractionary effects weakened and became expansionary as the nation transitioned to net petroleum exporter.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Market creation without market authority: Ex-ante evidence from European emissions trading
Completing exchange and allocation authority in the EU's carbon market ETS2 cuts present-value policy costs by EUR 1.33 trillion over 2028-2048 versus partial market creation.
- 23 Oct 20263fanfare
Inflation narratives and risk premia
Inflation risk premia move inversely with demand-versus-supply narratives extracted from financial news, consistent with asset pricing theory across euro area and U.S. maturities.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
When Diversification Fades: a Firm Level Perspective of Stock and Corporate Bond Correlations
A matched-issuer study finds euro-area stock-bond correlations have trended toward zero since 2009, with discount rates driving co-movement but financial stress effects weakening in high-inflation periods.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Filtering without Recursion and Some of Its Uses in Financial Economics
A new parallel filter removes price microstructure noise from high-frequency trade data without bias, producing flat volatility signatures down to one-second frequencies.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
A New Keynesian Model of the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns
A production economy with sticky prices explains equity and bond term structure slopes and cyclicality through countercyclical inflation and habit-driven risk premiums.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Beyond fragmentation: unraveling the drivers of yield divergence in the euro area
Research develops a high-frequency fragmentation index decomposing euro-area sovereign yields into common, market-driven, and fundamental components, showing Transmission Protection Instrument effectiveness.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Corridor Invoicing: Real Hedging in International Trade
Italian customs data shows firms match import and export invoicing currencies by country to reduce profit volatility from exchange-rate movements in real transactions.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Reassessing the 2000s Housing Cycle After Two Decades of Research
A synthesis of two decades of research attributes the housing boom to improved fundamentals, credit expansion, rate declines, and shifting expectations, with defaults driving the bust.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Hidden by complexity? Measuring stablecoin, crypto and decentralised finance ecosystems
The paper identifies three structural sources of measurement divergences in blockchain data and proposes approaches to align technical execution with economic meaning in DeFi ecosystems.
RePEcCrypto & DeFi
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Who’s Borrowing and Lending in Repo Markets?
The research examines who participates in U.S. repo markets, the trade-offs influencing repo segment structure, and the implications for monetary policy transmission.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Effects of an interest coverage ratio covenant on optimal capital structure and firm value
A capital structure model shows that interest coverage ratio covenants can improve firm value by reducing default costs, though they constrain shareholder discretion.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Communicating Performance: Textual and Financial Disclosures in Private Equity
The study finds that early textual discussions of portfolio companies better predict ultimate performance, while interim valuations matter more later, signaling general partner quality.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Bells and Whistles of Nowcasting Models: Which Matter and When?
Testing eight model features on US GDP forecasts, the study finds dynamic heterogeneity consistently improves point, density, and tail forecasts while other features help selectively.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Tariffs, production networks and spillovers: the case of a US-China trade war
A tariff war model shows asymmetric impacts, with the imposing country bearing inflationary burden and the target experiencing larger output contraction via production network propagation.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Out with the new, in with the old? Supranational bank supervision and the composition of firm investment
European single supervisory mechanism adoption caused firms to reduce intangible asset shares due to tighter lending and higher collateral standards, especially for small firms.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Acquisition Activity
Increased credit rating agency scrutiny under Dodd-Frank reduced speculative-grade firms' acquisitions, leading to more selective deals and higher announcement returns.
- 23 Oct 20262fanfare
Debt Sustainability and the Range of Multiple Equilibria
The paper characterizes how fiscal uncertainty shrinks the range of multiple equilibria in sovereign debt markets, eventually yielding unique interest rates as uncertainty grows.
- 16 Oct 20264fanfare
From Text to Evidence: LLMs in Economics and Finance
A review of LLM applications finds that contextual interpretation improves some tasks but measurement error persists, and trading signals do not always generate profits.
RePEcLLMs & Text
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
How Do Large, Sophisticated Cryptocurrency Trades Impact Broader DeFi Market Dynamics?
Large bitcoin trades reshape participant composition and trigger herding, raising volatility, while ethereum whales produce minimal market impact, revealing persistent information asymmetries.
RePEcCrypto & DeFi
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
Bonding Through Crises with NBFIs
Nonbank financial institutions contract loan syndication during banking crises but expand bond underwriting, helping firms that maintain NBFI relationships weather downturns better.
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
New Early-Warning Indicators of Macro-Financial Risk: A Mixture-of-Experts Approach
A mixture-of-experts approach combining ensemble models and logistic regression predicts developing-economy crises while decomposing risk into interpretable fiscal and financial components.
RePEcML & AI Methods
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
Measuring sentiment news with transformer-based language models
FinBERT-based sentiment measures agree more closely with human raters than dictionary methods and better distinguish positive, neutral, and negative financial news articles.
RePEcLLMs & Text
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
Fool's Gold? How the USD lost its Shine
Rising geopolitical risk fragments safe-asset demand: countries shift toward gold when sanction risk heightens, raising gold prices and Treasury yields as US convenience yields fall.
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
This Time Is (Mostly) Different: U.S. Tightening Cycles and Global Resilience in the 1980s vs 2020s
The study compares monetary tightening in the 1980s and 2020s, finding that fiscal space—not exchange-rate flexibility alone—explains why emerging markets have avoided crisis this time.
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
Rising Income Risk at the Top
Analysis of IRS tax returns shows permanent income risk rose nearly 70% among the top 5% since the 1970s, depressing risk-free rates and widening wealth inequality.
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
Uncertain Climate Policy and the Role of the Financial Stress Transmission Channel
A structural VAR shows climate policy uncertainty depresses equities and raises financial stress through credit channels, creating supply-driven downturns distinct from conventional uncertainty shocks.
- 16 Oct 20263fanfare
Inflation Inattention on the Production Network: Firm-Level Evidence and Macro Implications
The research shows that firms in industries with larger network weights forecast inflation more accurately, and production networks endogenously increase nominal rigidity by about 30 percent.