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RePEcML & AI Methods

Explaining Realized Returns: Roll’s R2 40 Years Later

Wall Street Journal market summaries explain 30-40% of daily and monthly returns out of sample when filtered for stated reasons, compared to under 10% for macro variables.

Featured in No. 138 on 6 Nov 2026 · 1 day after release

Monetary policy expansionary and contractionary periods overlaid with interest rate movements over time.
Figure 7: Expansionary and contractionary monetary-policy reasons with interest rates
Released
5 Nov 2026
First featured
No. 138 · 6 Nov 2026
Published in
Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
Fanfare
4 of 5
Identifier
RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35885
Authors
Bryan T. Kelly et al.

Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).

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