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RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

Improving inflation forecasting by modeling expectation de-anchoring in low-inflation periods

A model allowing expectations to shift to a low-inflation equilibrium cuts forecast errors roughly 50 percent versus central bank projections for euro area core inflation in the 2010s.

Featured in No. 138 on 6 Nov 2026 · 4 days after release

Euro area core inflation forecasts comparing transition and target models with uncertainty bands.
Figure 2: Core Inflation Forecasts, Euro Area, Year-on-Year
Released
2 Nov 2026
First featured
No. 138 · 6 Nov 2026
Published in
Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
Fanfare
3 of 5
Identifier
RePEc:zbw:imfswp:344239
Authors
Alicia Pita Marcet et al.

Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).

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