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ML-QuantIssue No. 137

Quant research, ranked weekly.

Every Friday we screen every new arXiv, SSRN and RePEc paper, rank the best 30 per venue, pull each paper's key figure, and track what happens to it afterwards. Free for people. Open to agents.

Issues
137
Papers featured
6,846
Cited 100+ times
230
Quants on the radar
10.6k

This week's top picks

From issue No. 137. All 90 papers →

  1. AI Equity Research Without Future Data

    Investor's Last Exam benchmarks AI agents on frozen financial databases, finding leading models score 68.1 overall yet only 52.5 on forecast accuracy.

    Fanfare 4ML & AI Methods
    Scatter plot showing forecast errors for Tesla across three AI models relative to zero-credit limits.
  2. When traders adopt more precise but common AI signals, synchronized order flow can outweigh forecast gains, reducing collective profits despite higher individual precision, a paradox that taxes can help resolve.

  3. 150 Years of US Inflation Expectations

    Fanfare 4Econometrics & Forecasting
    Three time series comparing inflation, narrative intensity, and grain futures spreads from 1870-2020.
  4. CRE price responses to US QE shock within and outside the US across multiple variables
  5. The agentic wealth-management layer

What's rising

Topics drawing unusually many papers this week.

  1. Alternative data

    3.8×

    1.8% of this week's 488 new papers, 3.7x its share over the previous 5 weeks (0.5%).

  2. Climate and ESG

    1.4×

    12.3% of this week's 488 new papers, 1.4x its share over the previous 5 weeks (8.6%).

  3. Graph neural networks

    2.2×

    1.8% of this week's 488 new papers, 2.2x its share over the previous 5 weeks (0.8%).

GitHub radar

What the quant community starred on GitHub this week, from a panel of 10,589 developers who follow financial machine learning (291 of the 859 we checked starred something). Counts only: we never publish who starred what.

Quant repos rising

  1. Python toolkit for quantitative finance, derivatives and risk management.

    ★ 13.8k+504 this weekPython

  2. Eleven Claude skills for day trading with backtesting and scanning.

    ★ 3,464+2,568 this weekPythonNew repo

  3. Quantitative research handbook.

    ★ 162+163 this weekPythonNew repo

  4. Local live map of option gamma exposure for indices and stocks.

    ★ 51+50 this weekPythonNew repo

  5. Eleven Claude skills testing business viability before launch.

    ★ 2,217+653 this weekPythonNew repo

  6. Production-grade Rust trading engine for algorithmic and crypto trading.

    ★ 31.1k+410 this weekRust

  7. Finance terminal for market data, portfolio tracking and stocks.

    ★ 2,577+65 this weekTypeScript

  8. Trading terminal UI for market data, charting and backtesting.

    ★ 376+19 this weekTypeScript

What quants are playing with

  1. Unlocks higher tensor throughput on GeForce GPUs for AI workloads.

    ★ 13.4k+12.6k this weekCNew repo

  2. List of jailbreaks.

    ★ 10.1k+6,563 this week

  3. Plans, applies and rolls back changes to production ontologies with audit proofs.

    ★ 2,213+898 this weekRust

  4. Lightweight IDE for AI coding agents with customizable skills.

    ★ 6,387+5,359 this weekTypeScript

  5. Tiny biped duck robot.

    ★ 13.1k+2,596 this weekRust

  6. No description available.

    ★ 12.7k+9,915 this week

We called it

Every featured paper is tracked on Semantic Scholar. Of the finance papers we featured when new, 26% are now in journals.

  1. 526

    FinGPT: Open-Source Financial Large Language Models

    Featured 14 Jun 2023, 5 days after release

  2. 275

    FinMem: A Performance-Enhanced LLM Trading Agent With Layered Memory and Character Design

    Featured 29 Nov 2023, 6 days after release · IEEE Transactions on Big Data

  3. 250

    HybridRAG: Integrating Knowledge Graphs and Vector Retrieval Augmented Generation for Efficient Information Extraction

    Featured 15 Aug 2024, 6 days after release · Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance

  4. 247

    TradingAgents: Multi-Agents LLM Financial Trading Framework

    Featured 1 Jan 2025, 4 days after release

  5. 195

    TKAN: Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    Featured 15 May 2024, 3 days after release

  6. 147

    Instruct-FinGPT: Financial Sentiment Analysis by Instruction Tuning of General-Purpose Large Language Models

    Featured 28 Jun 2023, 6 days after release

Browse by topic

Papers featured per quarter since May 2023.

  1. Crypto & DeFi

    Crypto & DeFi: papers featured per quarter

    Crypto assets, DeFi, stablecoins and blockchain markets.

    • Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero
    • Decentralised Finance and Automated Market Making: Execution and Speculation

    316 papers

  2. LLMs & Text

    LLMs & Text: papers featured per quarter

    Large language models, agents, sentiment and text as data in finance.

    • DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models
    • Mistral 7B

    596 papers

  3. Derivatives & Volatility

    Derivatives & Volatility: papers featured per quarter

    Option pricing, volatility models and forecasting, hedging and implied surfaces.

    • Risk Revisited
    • Rough Volatility: Fact or Artefact?

    908 papers

  4. Trading, Microstructure & Execution

    Trading, Microstructure & Execution: papers featured per quarter

    Order books, market making, execution, high-frequency data and trading signals.

    • FAST: Efficient Action Tokenization for Vision-Language-Action Models
    • Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active High Frequency Trading

    604 papers

  5. Portfolio & Allocation

    Portfolio & Allocation: papers featured per quarter

    Portfolio construction, allocation, rebalancing and risk budgeting, from Markowitz to deep RL.

    • Missing values handling for machine learning portfolios
    • Technical Note - An Unexpected Stochastic Dominance: Pareto Distributions, Dependence, and Diversification

    654 papers

  6. Risk, Credit & Banking

    Risk, Credit & Banking: papers featured per quarter

    Credit risk, default prediction, banking, systemic risk and risk measures.

    • Attention-based Dynamic Multilayer Graph Neural Networks for Loan Default Prediction
    • Moderating effects of gender and family responsibilities on the relations between work–family policies and job performance

    411 papers

  7. Asset Pricing & Factors

    Asset Pricing & Factors: papers featured per quarter

    Factor models, anomalies, the cross-section of returns and what survives publication.

    • Bubble economics
    • NUMOSIM: A Synthetic Mobility Dataset with Anomaly Detection Benchmarks

    303 papers

  8. Macro-Finance & Rates

    Macro-Finance & Rates: papers featured per quarter

    Rates, the yield curve, monetary policy, inflation and macro-finance.

    • The disruption index is biased by citation inflation
    • Inflation—Who Cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention

    306 papers

  9. Econometrics & Forecasting

    Econometrics & Forecasting: papers featured per quarter

    Forecasting, time series, econometrics and nowcasting.

    • TKAN: Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks
    • Deep learning models for price forecasting of financial time series: A review of recent advancements: 2020–2022

    341 papers

  10. ML & AI Methods

    ML & AI Methods: papers featured per quarter

    Machine-learning methods applied to finance: deep learning, boosting, RL and new architectures.

    • Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces
    • Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy

    1,171 papers

  11. Corporate Finance

    Corporate Finance: papers featured per quarter

    Firms, governance, IPOs, M&A and corporate decisions.

    • ESG Reputation Risk Matters: An Event Study Based on Social Media Data
    • Articulate AnyMesh: Open-Vocabulary 3D Articulated Objects Modeling

    170 papers

Recent issues

137 issues since May 2023.

Week 5

No. 137 · October 2026, Week 5

This week centers on AI agent fragility in financial markets, real-time benchmark design preventing memorization, and cryptographic signals predicting equities. AI Equity Research Without Future Data reveals forecast accuracy well below overall performance; Fragility Of Synchronized Agentic Wealth Management quantifie…

  1. AI Equity Research Without Future Data
  2. AI Monoculture Paradox in Markets
  3. 150 Years of US Inflation Expectations

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 4

No. 136 · October 2026, Week 4

This week spans AI risk in trading, neural microstructure learning, and the frontier's limits. Key tensions emerge: LLM traders fall to information attacks while benchmarks show no leading model beats equal-weight; neural filters cut arbitrage uncertainty eightfold yet ML VaR models hide regime-shift failures. Mean-fi…

  1. Information Injection Attacks on LLM Traders
  2. ML Value-at-Risk Validation Under Regime Shifts
  3. AI Productivity Gains Boost GDP Growth

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 3

No. 135 · October 2026, Week 3

This week pivots toward machine learning in discovery and execution. Foundation models learn market regimes from order flow; genetic programming and RL agents discover alpha factors across assets and frequencies. But a survey of 47 LLM trading systems finds reported margins vanish on retest, and a massive pre-register…

  1. Foundation Models Learn Market Regimes
  2. LLM-Based Trading Systems Survey
  3. Large Language Models in Economics Research

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 2

No. 134 · October 2026, Week 2

This week centers on AI systemic risk, factor discovery limits, and monetary transmission channels. Agentic AI systems create non-diversifiable contagion floors despite fleet size; automated factor mining shows no paradigm dominates; and Fed policy transmits primarily through risk appetite shifts rather than rates. Se…

  1. Agentic AI and Systemic Financial Risk
  2. Quantitative Equity Evolution: Constraints and Alpha Decay
  3. Risk Appetite and Monetary Transmission

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 1

No. 133 · October 2026, Week 1

This week centers on AI's expanding role in trading and markets, alongside persistent microstructure patterns and monetary policy transmission. Key papers: "AI Trading Methods: Backtests Versus Real Markets" measures the live-market gap for machine learning and LLM strategies; "Certified Alpha Capacity and Decay" deri…

  1. Certified Alpha Capacity and Decay
  2. Bond Signals Predict Next-Month Equity Returns
  3. AI and Corporate Bond Pricing

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 4

No. 132 · September 2026, Week 4

This week balances methodological rigor with practical market insights. Tail risk estimation and time-series validation trade-offs address foundational modeling challenges, while label engineering and LLM look-ahead bias expose common pitfalls in factor and AI development. Key reads: Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport, T…

  1. Tail Risk via Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport
  2. Artificial Intelligence and Financial Markets
  3. Agentic AI Systems Beat Asset Pricing Benchmarks

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

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The week's best arXiv, SSRN and RePEc papers, each in one sentence, with its key figure. Plus what quant developers are starring on GitHub and which of our past picks just got published.

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