150 years of U.S. inflation expectations

A narrative intensity measure from New York Times articles since 1870 predicts inflation better than commodity-based measures and reveals that the 1930s deflation was anticipated earlier than consensus suggests.

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Featured in No. 137 on 30 Oct 2026 · 4 days after release

Three time series comparing inflation, narrative intensity, and grain futures spreads from 1870-2020. — Figure 3: Predictive Power of Narrative Intensity and Grain Spot-Futures Spreads.

Released: 26 Oct 2026
First featured: No. 137 · 30 Oct 2026
Published in: Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
Fanfare: 4 of 5
Identifier: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:344109
Authors: Elissa-Ana-Maria Iorgulescu et al.

Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).

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