Learning Before Scheduled Events: Prediction Markets, State Prices, and Option Valuation
Prediction-market prices serve as risk-adjusted state prices to measure event probability and information arrival, improving option valuation and revealing market frictions in elections and Brexit.
Featured in No. 136 on 23 Oct 2026 · 2 days after release
- Released
- 21 Oct 2026
- First featured
- No. 136 · 23 Oct 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7647658
- Authors
- Michael Hanke et al.
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).