Market-Implied Policy-Outcome Dispersion and Long-Run Equity Volatility: Meeting-Level Evidence from Kalshi FOMC Contracts
Using Kalshi FOMC contract probabilities, the paper shows that cross-outcome variance in Federal Reserve policy expectations contains significant information about long-run stock market volatility.
Featured in No. 133 on 2 Oct 2026 · 2 days after release
- Released
- 30 Sep 2026
- First featured
- No. 133 · 2 Oct 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7531599
- Authors
- Fuli Yang
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).