---
title: Learning Before Scheduled Events: Prediction Markets, State Prices, and Option Valuation
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7647658/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-23
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7647658
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7647658
featured: 2026-10-23
citations: unknown
topic: Derivatives & Volatility
---


# Learning Before Scheduled Events: Prediction Markets, State Prices, and Option Valuation

Prediction-market prices serve as risk-adjusted state prices to measure event probability and information arrival, improving option valuation and revealing market frictions in elections and Brexit.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7647658
- Identifier: SSRN 7647658
- Released: 2026-10-21
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 136 (2026-10-23): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-23/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Derivatives & Volatility
- Authors: Michael Hanke, Wolfgang Schadner, Sebastian Stöckl, Alex Weissensteiner

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