SSRNTrading, Microstructure & Execution
Contract-level Informational Efficiency in Prediction Markets: Measurable Ex Post, Not Predictable Ex Ante
Studying 244 resolved Kalshi markets, the research finds that efficiency is measurable ex post but not predictable ex ante, and naive trading strategies fail against market benchmarks.
Featured in No. 138 on 6 Nov 2026 · 2 days after release
- Released
- 4 Nov 2026
- First featured
- No. 138 · 6 Nov 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 2 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7673098
- Authors
- Cristina Bixhili
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).