SSRNTrading, Microstructure & Execution
When the Efficient Price Is Observable: A Model-Free Decomposition of Price Impact
Using observable outcomes in prediction markets to identify efficient prices, the study decomposes impact into price-moving and anticipation components, finding informed traders earn mostly through prediction.
Featured in No. 136 on 23 Oct 2026 · 2 days after release
- Released
- 21 Oct 2026
- First featured
- No. 136 · 23 Oct 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7651399
- Authors
- Oliver Padmaperuma and Andre Guettler
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).