---
title: Contract-level Informational Efficiency in Prediction Markets: Measurable Ex Post, Not Predictable Ex Ante
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7673098/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-06
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7673098
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7673098
featured: 2026-11-06
citations: unknown
topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
---


# Contract-level Informational Efficiency in Prediction Markets: Measurable Ex Post, Not Predictable Ex Ante

Studying 244 resolved Kalshi markets, the research finds that efficiency is measurable ex post but not predictable ex ante, and naive trading strategies fail against market benchmarks.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7673098
- Identifier: SSRN 7673098
- Released: 2026-11-04
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 138 (2026-11-06): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-06/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
- Authors: Cristina Bixhili

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