---
title: When the Efficient Price Is Observable: A Model-Free Decomposition of Price Impact
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7651399/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-23
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7651399
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7651399
featured: 2026-10-23
citations: unknown
topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
---


# When the Efficient Price Is Observable: A Model-Free Decomposition of Price Impact

Using observable outcomes in prediction markets to identify efficient prices, the study decomposes impact into price-moving and anticipation components, finding informed traders earn mostly through prediction.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7651399
- Identifier: SSRN 7651399
- Released: 2026-10-21
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 136 (2026-10-23): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-23/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
- Authors: Oliver Padmaperuma, Andre Guettler

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