SSRNEconometrics & Forecasting
Prediction Market Calibration across Forecast Horizons: Politics, Sports and Trading Costs
A sample of 1,500 sports and politics prediction markets shows prices are well calibrated with no favourite-longshot bias, though calibration slightly worsens seven days before events.
Featured in No. 139 on 13 Nov 2026 · on release day
- Released
- 13 Nov 2026
- First featured
- No. 139 · 13 Nov 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 2 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7683871
- Authors
- Joseph Glasson
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).