---
title: Prediction Market Calibration across Forecast Horizons: Politics, Sports and Trading Costs
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7683871/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-14
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7683871
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7683871
featured: 2026-11-13
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# Prediction Market Calibration across Forecast Horizons: Politics, Sports and Trading Costs

A sample of 1,500 sports and politics prediction markets shows prices are well calibrated with no favourite-longshot bias, though calibration slightly worsens seven days before events.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7683871
- Identifier: SSRN 7683871
- Released: 2026-11-13
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 139 (2026-11-13): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-13/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Joseph Glasson

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