---
title: Market-Implied Policy-Outcome Dispersion and Long-Run Equity Volatility: Meeting-Level Evidence from Kalshi FOMC Contracts
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7531599/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-02
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7531599
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7531599
featured: 2026-10-02
citations: unknown
topic: Derivatives & Volatility
---


# Market-Implied Policy-Outcome Dispersion and Long-Run Equity Volatility: Meeting-Level Evidence from Kalshi FOMC Contracts

Using Kalshi FOMC contract probabilities, the paper shows that cross-outcome variance in Federal Reserve policy expectations contains significant information about long-run stock market volatility.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7531599
- Identifier: SSRN 7531599
- Released: 2026-09-30
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 133 (2026-10-02): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-02/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Derivatives & Volatility
- Authors: Fuli Yang

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