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RePEcEconometrics & Forecasting

Zero-Shot Conditional Forecasting and the Information Content of Central Bank Paths

A pre-trained time-series model reading central bank published paths cuts forecast errors better than the banks themselves and hard-conditioned VARs, revealing exploitable institutional differences.

Featured in No. 133 on 2 Oct 2026 · 11 days after release

Credibility gap for inflation under the Multi input
Figure 4. Credibility gap for inflation under the Multi input. Top: cross-horizon mean ¯δChr
Released
21 Sep 2026
First featured
No. 133 · 2 Oct 2026
Published in
Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
Fanfare
2 of 5
Identifier
RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12972
Authors
Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).

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