---
title: Zero-Shot Conditional Forecasting and the Information Content of Central Bank Paths
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/ces-ceswps-12972/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-02
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12972
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12972
featured: 2026-10-02
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# Zero-Shot Conditional Forecasting and the Information Content of Central Bank Paths

A pre-trained time-series model reading central bank published paths cuts forecast errors better than the banks themselves and hard-conditioned VARs, revealing exploitable institutional differences.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12972
- Identifier: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12972
- Released: 2026-09-21
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 133 (2026-10-02): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-02/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Vegard H. Larsen, Leif Anders Thorsrud

## Related

- [Estimation and testing of forecast rationality with many moments](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2309.09481/): The article examines the use of P-GMM moment selection procedure in estimating and testing forecast rationality, using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.
- [The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2305.12318/): Quantitative easing positively affected US GDP but did not impact inflation.
- [The Uncertainty Channel of Monetary Policy Communication](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/tse-wpaper-132139/): The study shows that increased Federal Reserve communication lowers monetary policy uncertainty and generates substantial real effects: industrial production rises 0.3 percent and unemployment falls 0.2 percentage points within two months.
- [What makes Monetary Policy More Powerful? A Big Data Approach](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cbi-wpaper-09-rt-26/): Analysis of a large macro-financial dataset ranks non-linear monetary transmission channels, finding transmission to long-term rates weakens at high interest rates and high credit growth, with sovereign risk mattering in the euro area.
- [Bayesian ANN for Efficiency Analysis](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eee-econom-v-236-y-2023-i-2-s0304407623002075/): The paper introduces a novel method for frontier estimation in econometrics, merging Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis using Bayesian artificial neural networks, and validates its efficiency with Monte Carlo experiments and a dataset of large US banks.
- [TKAN: Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4825654/): The article presents Temporal Kolomogorov-Arnold Networks (TKANs), a new neural network design that merges the benefits of Recurrent Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory for improved multistep time series forecasting.