Prediction Markets as Arrow–Debreu Securities: Evidence from Polymarket: State Prices, No-Arbitrage Bounds and Macroeconomic News in Blockchain-Based Contingent Claims
State prices from binary prediction markets on the Fed decision and presidential election satisfy the law of one price for complete contingent claims, with overround declining steadily toward resolution.
Featured in No. 136 on 23 Oct 2026 · 1 day after release
- Released
- 22 Oct 2026
- First featured
- No. 136 · 23 Oct 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7651118
- Authors
- Simon-Pierre Boucher
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