---
title: Prediction Markets as Arrow–Debreu Securities: Evidence from Polymarket: State Prices, No-Arbitrage Bounds and Macroeconomic News in Blockchain-Based Contingent Claims
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7651118/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-23
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7651118
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7651118
featured: 2026-10-23
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# Prediction Markets as Arrow–Debreu Securities: Evidence from Polymarket: State Prices, No-Arbitrage Bounds and Macroeconomic News in Blockchain-Based Contingent Claims

State prices from binary prediction markets on the Fed decision and presidential election satisfy the law of one price for complete contingent claims, with overround declining steadily toward resolution.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7651118
- Identifier: SSRN 7651118
- Released: 2026-10-22
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 136 (2026-10-23): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-23/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
- Authors: Simon-Pierre Boucher

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