Testing the Shiller CAPE Ratio Across 140 Years of U.S. Stock Market Data
The CAPE ratio significantly predicts ten-year real stock returns across 1881–2023 even after rigorous statistical tests, with out-of-sample predictive power highly dependent on market regime.
Featured in No. 135 on 16 Oct 2026 · 3 days after release
- Released
- 13 Oct 2026
- First featured
- No. 135 · 16 Oct 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7603798
- Authors
- Sanay Kotian
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).