SSRNTrading, Microstructure & Execution
Order Flow Imbalance and Price Discovery on Prediction Markets: Evidence from Kalshi
Order flow imbalance predicts contemporaneous mid-price changes in Kalshi binary event contracts, with explanatory power varying from 0.29 for sports to 0.02 for macroeconomic events.
Featured in No. 133 on 2 Oct 2026 · 6 days after release
- Released
- 26 Sep 2026
- First featured
- No. 133 · 2 Oct 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7520438
- Authors
- Ash Malék
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).