---
title: Improving inflation forecasting by modeling expectation de-anchoring in low-inflation periods
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/zbw-imfswp-344239/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-06
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:344239
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:imfswp:344239
featured: 2026-11-06
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# Improving inflation forecasting by modeling expectation de-anchoring in low-inflation periods

A model allowing expectations to shift to a low-inflation equilibrium cuts forecast errors roughly 50 percent versus central bank projections for euro area core inflation in the 2010s.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:imfswp:344239
- Identifier: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:344239
- Released: 2026-11-02
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 138 (2026-11-06): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-06/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Pita Marcet, Alicia, Schröder, Christian, Wolters, Maik H.

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