Geopolitical Oil-Supply Scenarios and Macroeconomic Risks: A Bayesian Toolkit for Policy Analysis

A framework maps Middle East geopolitical risk to oil prices and inflation through scenario analysis updated in real time using market prices and expert assessments.

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Featured in No. 135 on 16 Oct 2026 · 11 days after release

Three-block operational framework: geopolitical scenarios to physical supply disruption to Brent price paths. — Figure 1: From geopolitical risk to oil prices: a three-block operational framework.

Released: 5 Oct 2026
First featured: No. 135 · 16 Oct 2026
Published in: Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
Fanfare: 3 of 5
Identifier: RePEc:bde:opaper:2616e
Authors: Irma Alonso-Alvarez et al.

Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).

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