---
title: Geopolitical Oil-Supply Scenarios and Macroeconomic Risks: A Bayesian Toolkit for Policy Analysis
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/bde-opaper-2616e/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-16
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:bde:opaper:2616e
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:2616e
featured: 2026-10-16
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# Geopolitical Oil-Supply Scenarios and Macroeconomic Risks: A Bayesian Toolkit for Policy Analysis

A framework maps Middle East geopolitical risk to oil prices and inflation through scenario analysis updated in real time using market prices and expert assessments.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:2616e
- Identifier: RePEc:bde:opaper:2616e
- Released: 2026-10-05
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 135 (2026-10-16): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-16/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
- Authors: Irma Alonso-Alvarez, Iván Kataryniuk, David López-Salido, Javier J. Pérez

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