A Tale of Two Agents: Rethinking the Benchmark for Bond Return Predictability
A yield-curve slope measure based on random-walk beliefs outperforms the expectations hypothesis in forecasting Treasury returns and economic value out of sample.
Featured in No. 139 on 13 Nov 2026 · 4 days after release
- Released
- 9 Nov 2026
- First featured
- No. 139 · 13 Nov 2026
- Published in
- Not yet, as far as Semantic Scholar knows
- Fanfare
- 3 of 5
- Identifier
- SSRN 7682408
- Authors
- Hoyong Choi
Citations and venue from Semantic Scholar (ODC-BY), refreshed weekly. Summary: Quant Letter (CC BY 4.0).