SSRNRisk, Credit & Banking

Heterogeneous Estimation of the Causal Effect of Debt Restructuring Interventions: A Causal and Explainable Uplift Modeling Framework for the Economic Optimization of Credit Risk Portfolios

A causal framework compares six estimators of treatment effect to optimally assign debt restructuring interventions, revealing that targeting borrowers by predicted effect generates substantially positive value where blanket treatment fails.