Quant LetterNo. 119
90 items across 9 sections, as sent to readers on 12 November 2025. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.
Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.
13 items
After the 2024 U.S. election, people’s reported well‑being fell sharply and stayed low, especially for women, non‑White, urban, and more educated groups — suggesting political polarization harms mental health.
1 sharesSource ↗
Large‑scale food fortification slightly lowers the cost of nutritious diets (median 1.7–4.5%), but results vary a lot by country and group, so local design matters.
1 sharesSource ↗
Cutting the model’s future‑state complexity removes an expectations “trap,” gives a single equilibrium, and implies government spending always raises consumption (potentially by a large amount).
1 sharesSource ↗
We build an interpretable, privacy‑friendly sentiment indicator from Swiss news using ML and LLMs, and it improves short‑term GDP forecasts.
1 shares1 citation todaySource ↗
A nonlinear model finds Minsky‑style boom–bust cycles tied to corporate debt in most countries and to interest rates everywhere, with household‑debt effects only in the US and UK — highlighting regime shifts.
1 shares1 citation todaySource ↗
In Poland, cheap online portfolio challenges and one‑on‑one mentoring sharply increased women’s tech employment, and data-driven targeting improved admissions.
61 shares3 citations todaySource ↗
A simple prompt to share certificates on LinkedIn raised employment overall, especially helping low‑skilled learners by making credentials visible.
58 shares2 citations todaySource ↗
Fair LLM Summary Attribution: ClusterShapley groups documents to fairly and efficiently assign credit for LLM summaries, outperforming common unfair shortcuts.
25 shares9 citations todaySource ↗
U.S. Causal Rhetoric: Growing blame/credit language in congressional tweets changed donation patterns, fueled protests and polarization, and shifted public trust.
21 sharesSource ↗
Eating less meat and fewer starchy staples worldwide could sharply cut diet-related greenhouse gas emissions.
18 shares2 citations todaySource ↗
In the UK, simply consuming less won't make lifestyles sustainable—production and service systems must change too.
17 shares10 citations todaySource ↗
Automated Earnings Analysis: RAGIT uses retrieval plus instruction tuning on financial documents to automate earnings-report analysis with near-commercial accuracy.
15 shares4 citations todaySource ↗
LLMs that raise news engagement can also increase polarization; MODPO boosts engagement while keeping a chosen editorial slant.
14 shares2 citations todaySource ↗
Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.
30 items
Uses ML and copula regression to track how Pakistani stocks move with the KSE‑30 and proposes a volatility‑aware way to build better portfolios.
10 sharesSource ↗
Builds and back‑tests an automated ARMA‑GARCH trading system to help emerging‑market portfolios limit losses and reduce capital outflows in crises.
9 sharesSource ↗
Heavy Tails & Dynamic Correlations: Models heavy‑tailed returns with a multivariate generalized hyperbolic distribution to produce expected‑shortfall risk‑parity weights that lower turnover and hold up in turmoil.
9 sharesSource ↗
Finds Sharpe‑ratio minima/maxima trading rules beat buy‑and‑hold across six countries (1998–2023), supporting adaptive markets and recurring profit opportunities.
8 sharesSource ↗
Forecaster disagreement predicts stock risk premia: consumption disagreement moves overall market returns, while productivity disagreement mainly hurts small, low-profit firms.
5 sharesSource ↗
Gives closed-form best payout and investment rules for a target-benefit pension facing continuous and sudden shocks to maximize expected utility.
5 sharesSource ↗
Proposes a time-linked DEA with Whale Optimization to pick consistently efficient trading strategies and companies, avoiding misleading one-off high scores.
5 sharesSource ↗
Accounting for optimal early exercise changes results: American puts look less bad on raw returns but worse after delta-hedging, altering option-anomaly profits.
4 sharesSource ↗
Long-Term Outcomes: Defines sustainable return (withdrawal rate that preserves real capital) to show sequence risk and why short-term averages mislead long-term outcomes.
4 sharesSource ↗
News Sentiment & Intraday Volatility: Measured news sentiment (GPT‑4 vs RavenPack) strongly predicts intraday stock volatility; both positive and negative firm and macro news matter.
6 sharesSource ↗
Gamified Speech Emotion Crowdsourcing & AI Literacy: The gamified app J‑Plus effectively collects emotion-labeled speech, boosts user learning/motivation, and improves data for speech-emotion models.
4 sharesSource ↗
Stronger product-market competition increases firms’ chances of adopting zero‑leverage policies, especially when earnings are more volatile.
4 sharesSource ↗
Introduces an unsupervised mixture autoregressive model that captures complex time-series patterns and is tested on financial data during COVID-19.
6 sharesSource ↗
Proposes two deep-learning frameworks plus a model-combination method to produce more accurate Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates.
6 sharesSource ↗
Finds extreme house-price shocks transmit across countries more strongly than normal moves, with the US housing market and its interest rate as the main contagion source.
5 sharesSource ↗
Shows long-maturity Treasury futures volatility (especially the 10‑year) improves forecasts of Chinese stock volatility, with SPCA and Lasso outperforming standard models and delivering portfolio gains.
5 sharesSource ↗
SVM vs Transformers: Compares SVM, SPECTER, BERT, and GPT‑3.5 for abstract classification; fine-tuned BERT performs best overall while GPT‑3.5 is inconsistent in zero-/few-shot settings.
4 sharesSource ↗
Spanish-language anti-abortion Twitter communities spread hateful, negative messages, are male-dominated, clustered by country, and link extreme-right, religious, and political actors.
4 sharesSource ↗
Review: fashion demand forecasting is hard because tastes change, seasonality, and social media matter; machine-learning and deep-learning methods are recommended to improve predictions.
4 sharesSource ↗
Comparing SVM vs LSTM for oil prices (2007–2021): LSTM outperforms SVM, giving more accurate forecasts and better capturing time-dependent dynamics.
4 sharesSource ↗
Machine learning now predicts daily VIX better, with weekly jobless claims a key driver and trading more resilient.
12 sharesSource ↗
Traditional ML (XGBoost, logistic) outperformed LSTM/BiLSTM for Eurozone bank stock direction—likely because deep learning had too little data.
7 sharesSource ↗
The WNSS poorly fits EU online gig workers; a shorter 12-item, three-factor scale (survival, social contribution, competence) fits better.
2 sharesSource ↗
AI methods (predictive analytics, reinforcement learning, anomaly detection) can optimize cloud resource allocation for DevOps, reducing waste and downtime.
2 sharesSource ↗
Prepandemic EU27 snapshot of young informal workers: how many they are, what work and sectors they do, and why (Eurobarometer data).
2 sharesSource ↗
Egovernance can boost citizen participation but needs reliable tech, digital skills, public trust, and proper laws.
2 sharesSource ↗
Investment platforms use misleading dark patterns that harm retail investors; fix with behavioral science, AI tools, and tighter rules.
1 sharesSource ↗
Review summarizes what drives bank performance and urges more study on COVID impacts, digital transformation, AI, and FinTech.
1 sharesSource ↗
Strong AI capabilities lift firm performance; a data-driven culture helps and robust AI infrastructure matters most.
1 sharesSource ↗
Using machine learning on social media identifies key climate topics and calls for coordinated communication and policy to reach net-zero.
1 sharesSource ↗
Papers that shipped their code, from the Papers with Code feed (2023-25).
4 items
Agentic Multimodal: DeepEyesV2 — a two-stage-trained multimodal agent that learns to use external tools to solve real-world reasoning tasks.
937 shares
Low-Data Learners: Diffusion language models — they predict tokens via iterative denoising and flexible token order, outperforming autoregressive models with limited data and keeping advantages as they scale.
35 shares
RLVE Gradually increases problem difficulty during training so language models learn stronger reasoning, outperforming fixed environments and standard RL.
18 shares
Recurrence curriculum: Convert pretrained nonrecurrent models to depth-recurrent ones and train with an increasing-recurrence curriculum to get better results for the same compute.
14 shares
Repositories the letter featured.
10 items
Python portfolio guide — Shows how to use Python to build and optimize investment portfolios with Efficient Frontier, Black–Litterman, and Hierarchical Risk Parity methods.
5,271 shares
Pglake — Lets you use PostgreSQL to query and manage Iceberg tables stored on a data lake.
1,042 shares
Hyperliquid Python SDK — A Python library to connect to Hyperliquid’s API for placing trades and managing accounts programmatically.
1,224 shares
Deepnote — A cloud notebook that replaces Jupyter with a cleaner UI, AI features, data integrations, and real-time collaboration.
1,191 shares
GPUoptimized diffusion LM framework — A toolkit for training diffusion-based language models at scale on GPUs, used by projects like Quokka and OpenMoE 2.
223 shares
Shows techniques to make multiple autonomous agents coordinate smoothly and work efficiently.
1,202 shares
Describes a system where agents discover tasks and automatically build the workflows to complete them.
540 shares
Teaches assembly language and low-level optimization using practical FFmpeg examples.
10,016 shares
Introduces Valdi, a cross-platform UI framework that gives native-like performance while keeping development fast.
4,807 shares
Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.
5 items
Balyasny Asset Management has hired Wajih Ahmed, a former Goldman Sachs inflation trader and child math prodigy, for its London office.
2 shares
Trading firm Five Rings appears to be expanding its office space, suggesting the firm is growing.
2 shares
AIMA is lobbying the UK to exempt hedge funds from new rules requiring detailed net‑zero transition plans.
2 shares
GIC is hiring and expanding its workforce.
1 shares
In October short sellers grew more defensive, crowding into consumer stocks while still betting against tech.
0 shares
Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.
10 items
Brad Barrie — Global macro strategies and true diversification spread risk across assets to help protect portfolios in uncertain markets.
8 shares
Alan Dunne & Yoav Git — Market moves often reflect money flows and liquidity pressures more than pure economic logic.
6 shares
Perth Tolle — An emerging‑markets index that excludes authoritarian regimes, aiming for long‑term returns by focusing on freer markets.
6 shares
Chris Clark — Biotech is highly volatile; private and public investors behave differently, and AI plus regulation could reshape drug development.
6 shares
Will Rhind — YieldBoost ETFs use options to generate higher income while trying to limit downside losses and NAV erosion.
5 shares
Louis Pellathy uses intraday “gamma capture” volatility models to trade S&P 500 0DTE options on major platforms.
5 shares
Conor Taggart moved from LSEG/Nasdaq to Millennium and now leads data monetization at Eagle Alpha, specializing in alternative data.
5 shares
David Samra explains value investing basics, how to assess businesses and management, and the challenges of managing very large capital.
5 shares
Joe Davis warns that AI and demographic trends will pull the U.S. economy in different directions and recommends diversification for uncertain outcomes.
5 shares
Alan Dunne and George Magnus say China is industrially powerful but constrained by aging, debt, and political-market tensions that may limit future growth.
4 shares
Posts from quant and economics blogs and newsletters.
10 items
Jim Simons gains an edge by using massive data and spotting tiny statistical patterns.
3 shares
Global ex‑US small‑cap stocks can give quants extra returns and diversification.
3 shares
Past presidential election results can change which quant factors work best.
2 shares
Crypto markets are much more volatile and less tied to fundamentals than traditional stocks.
2 shares
In Japan, investor habits make analyst-based momentum strategies less effective, so alternative data could help forecasts.
2 shares
Crypto market is down: Bitcoin fell below the six-figure mark and Ethereum lost recent gains.
1 shares
Bitcoin may be in an “IPO moment” as early investors cash out while Wall Street and bankers ramp up involvement.
1 shares
Some altcoins, like Zcash, have surged even though overall market sentiment remains weak.
1 shares
Posts from quant researchers on X.
2 items
Paper: Uses a transformer's attention to build the stochastic discount factor, showing AI can improve asset pricing.
1 shares
Blog Questions whether forecasting volatility is worth it, arguing benefits may be limited once costs and model risk are accounted for.
0 shares
Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.
6 items
20 shares
182 shares
85 shares
450 shares
65 shares
120 shares