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Quant LetterNo. 114

October 2025, Week 1

110 items across 8 sections, as sent to readers on 3 October 2025. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.

arXiv

Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.

20 items

Finance8

01

Revisiting Mean-field Theory

The Santa Fe model, used for analyzing the dynamics of the limit order book, is reevaluated using kinetic theory, leading to a new equation for the order-book density profile and identifying a previous error by E. Smith and colleagues.

24 sharesSource ↗

02

Portfolio Similarity Metric

STRAPSim, a new method for assessing portfolio similarity, surpasses existing measures by using semantic similarity, portfolio share weighting, and residual-aware greedy alignment, proving beneficial in ETF benchmarking, portfolio creation, and systematic execution.

12 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

03

Neural Network Convergence

A novel approach to using neural networks on linear parabolic variational inequalities shows the potential of neural networks in solving optimal stopping and control problems in finance.

9 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

04

Deep Learning for Portfolio Decisions

A new deep learning framework for portfolio optimization, which combines LSTM networks, Graph Attention Networks, and financial news sentiment analysis, outperforms traditional benchmarks by directly learning portfolio weights, resulting in higher cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios.

9 sharesSource ↗

05

Limits of FSD

The study delves into Meyer risk measures, their structure, applications, and existence, and uncovers a deeper connection between monetary risk measures and second-order stochastic dominance.

8 sharesSource ↗

06

AIML in Portfolio

The review offers practical advice on using machine learning tools in portfolio weight formation, stressing the importance of combining these tools with portfolio choice-objective functions for optimal outcomes.

7 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

07

Predicting Earnings with PR

The research explores the predictive power of textual features in earnings press releases on stock returns, concluding that press release content is as informative as earnings surprise, with FinBERT being the most predictive.

7 sharesSource ↗

08

Predicting Earnings Returns

The study investigates the impact of textual features in earnings press releases on stock returns, finding that press release content is as informative as earnings surprise, and that using combined models improves the interpretation of press release content.

7 sharesSource ↗

Economics8

01

APEX AI Model Benchmarking

The AI Productivity Index (APEX) is a new benchmark for evaluating the economic value of AI models in sectors like investment banking, consulting, law, and medical care.

64 shares10 citations todaySource ↗

02

Labour Unions in Neoliberal Regimes

The article discusses the negative effects of neoliberalism on organized labour in Turkey and Egypt, emphasizing the role of suppressing labour unions in neoliberal restructuring.

26 shares11 citations todaySource ↗

04

Determinants of Low Performing Students

A paper uses PISA 2022 data and machine learning to identify factors affecting student performance in Latin America, emphasizing the need for strategies to address educational inequalities.

15 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

05

Latin American Student Resilience Factors

The research highlights household resources, gender, homework, and teaching quality as key factors influencing academic resilience among disadvantaged Latin American students, especially during the pandemic.

14 sharesSource ↗

06

PostPandemic Factors for Low Performing Students

The paper uses machine learning and PISA 2022 data to identify factors such as language barriers, digital device scarcity, poverty, and poor school conditions as causes of low academic performance in Latin America.

14 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

08

Spatial and Temporal Treatment Effects Framework

The paper introduces a theoretical framework for detecting and estimating treatment effect boundaries across space and time, offering tools to identify when local treatments become systemic and require policy intervention.

10 sharesSource ↗

Miscellaneous1

01

Eigenvector Overlaps in Covariance Matrices

The article uses advanced mathematical methods to measure the overlap between two large empirical covariance matrices over intersecting time periods. The findings are then applied to financial data.

8 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

Crypto & Blockchain2

01

Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Detection

The study uses SMOTE and advanced ensemble learning models like XGBoost and LightGBM to effectively detect pump and dump manipulation in cryptocurrency markets, enhancing market transparency and stability.

10 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

02

AlphaSAGE: Alpha Mining

Alpha Mining: AlphaSAGE, a new framework for automated alpha mining in quantitative finance, uses a structure-aware encoder and Generative Flow Networks to overcome challenges and outperforms existing methods in creating a diverse and predictive portfolio of alphas.

6 shares14 citations todaySource ↗

Historical Trending1

01

Analyzing US Airline Mergers: A Fresh Perspective

A Fresh Perspective: The article introduces a new way to assess mergers after they occur, finding that while major airline mergers may increase efficiency, they also increase coordination. This often results in anti-competitive effects, particularly in later mergers.

17 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

RePEc

Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.

30 items

Finance6

01

Enhanced EM Portfolios with AATS

Algorithmic trading and passive investing have caused issues during market downturns like the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict, but a new Automated Adaptive Trading System could stabilize these markets.

27 sharesSource ↗

02

Volatile KSE-30 Equities Allocation

Machine learning has been used to identify assets contributing to downward trends in the Pakistan Stock Exchange, proposing an optimal asset allocation scheme.

25 sharesSource ↗

04

Adaptive Market Hypothesis

The research finds that Sharpe Ratio Minimae and Maximae trading strategies are more profitable than the buy-and-hold strategy in global markets, supporting the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

15 sharesSource ↗

05

Novel Window Analysis

The study introduces a new window analysis method for assessing decision-making units' efficiency, using the Whale Optimization Algorithm, and applies it to forex investment strategies and utility companies in the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange.

11 sharesSource ↗

06

Monitoring Poverty in Lebanon

The paper uses a new data augmentation technique to study poverty in the Middle East and North Africa, specifically Lebanon, using alternative data sources when traditional income data is scarce or unavailable.

10 sharesSource ↗

Statistical5

01

BRM for Incomplete Data Prediction

The blockwise reduced modeling (BRM) method is a new approach for analyzing incomplete data, offering faster analysis and less data imputation, and outperforming existing models in predictive performance.

20 sharesSource ↗

02

New Momentum Strategy for Equity Premium

A new machine learning strategy, momentum-determined indicator-switching (N-MDIS), is proposed for predicting equity premiums, providing more accurate forecasts than previous methods.

19 sharesSource ↗

03

Product Market Competition and Zero-Leverage

The study suggests that increased product market competition leads firms to adopt zero-leverage policies, particularly those with high earnings volatility, emphasizing the influence of earnings volatility on capital structure decisions.

18 sharesSource ↗

04

News Sentiment Impact on Risk Management

The paper reassesses the impact of news sentiment on stock return volatility, demonstrating that accurately measured news sentiment significantly influences intraday stock return volatility, with GPT-4 classification outperforming RavenPack.

16 sharesSource ↗

Machine Learning7

01

Machine Learning for M&A

Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in predicting Chinese corporate mergers and acquisitions, with certain variables significantly impacting prediction accuracy.

28 sharesSource ↗

02

Tail Risk Management

Two new probabilistic deep learning frameworks have been introduced for estimating financial risk measures, outperforming existing methods and aiding in better capital allocation.

27 sharesSource ↗

03

Bond Market Volatility Forecasting

Machine learning methods effectively use the volatility of 10-year treasury bond contracts to improve the accuracy of stock market volatility forecasts in China.

24 sharesSource ↗

04

Lot Streaming and Scheduling

The article proposes a new algorithm and machine learning model for the Lot Streaming and Scheduling Problem (LSSP) with unpredictable product arrival times, aiming to increase efficiency and accuracy.

16 sharesSource ↗

05

Dynamics in Chinese Financial Markets

The paper introduces a new machine learning method for decomposing and analyzing complex time series, providing a potential alternative to the Box-Jenkins method, as shown with COVID-19 financial data.

13 sharesSource ↗

07

Housing Market Connectedness

The paper investigates the global housing market's interconnectedness using machine learning and quantile connectedness models, revealing the US market as the primary source of systematic shocks with its interest rate as the key global factor.

10 sharesSource ↗

Deep Learning2

01

Oil Price Forecasting: ML vs. DL

ML vs. DL: Deep learning methods have been found to be more effective than traditional machine learning in predicting oil prices, especially during crises.

31 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending10

01

Predicting VIX Trends

The research uses machine learning to predict the CBOE Volatility Index, highlighting the importance of weekly jobless claim data in improving trading strategies.

23 sharesSource ↗

02

Stock Price Prediction

The study reveals that traditional machine learning models outperform deep learning models in predicting stock price direction in the Eurozone banking sector.

13 sharesSource ↗

03

AI Capability Impact

The research indicates that AI capability directly influences firm performance, with a data-driven culture and AI infrastructure playing key roles.

5 sharesSource ↗

04

Climate Discussions

The study emphasizes the need for communication and a holistic approach in addressing climate change, using machine learning to analyze social media discussions on the topic.

4 sharesSource ↗

05

Dark Patterns in Retail

The research investigates the issue of deceptive tactics in the retail investment sector, suggesting the use of behavioral sciences and AI to improve regulation and safeguard investors.

2 sharesSource ↗

09

Bank Performance Determinants

The paper analyzes literature on factors affecting banks' performance, proposing new research areas in digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and the impact of COVID-19.

1 sharesSource ↗

Machine learning

The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.

10 items

Historical Trending10

01

QLASS: Language Agent

Language Agent: QLASS system enhances language agents' performance by offering step-by-step guidance, leading to better decision-making even with limited supervision.

189 shares19 citations todaySource ↗

02

Decision Theory for Prediction

The Risk-Averse Calibration algorithm improves decision-making in risk-sensitive areas like medicine by linking prediction uncertainty with risk-averse decision-making, ensuring safety while maximizing utility.

20 shares46 citations todaySource ↗

03

RoPEs Learning

STRING, an upgrade of Rotary Position Encodings, offers exact translation invariance and low computational footprint, enhancing performance in robotics and object detection.

13 shares20 citations todaySource ↗

04

Particle Trajectory Learning

PoLAr-MAE uses self-supervised learning to analyze complex point cloud data from Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers, delivering high performance with minimal labeled data.

13 shares9 citations todaySource ↗

05

LoRAX: Adaptation

Adaptation: LoRA-X enables the transfer of parameters across models without original or synthetic training data, simplifying the fine-tuning process and proving effective in text-to-image generation tasks.

13 shares11 citations todaySource ↗

06

AnyMesh: Open-Vocabulary 3D Modeling

Open-Vocabulary 3D Modeling: Articulate Anymesh is a new system that transforms any 3D mesh into a movable object, broadening the scope of 3D modeling and assisting in the development of robotic object manipulation skills.

10 shares53 citations todaySource ↗

07

SeedVR: Video Restoration with Diffusion Transformer

Video Restoration with Diffusion Transformer: SeedVR, a diffusion transformer, is capable of restoring real-world videos of any length and resolution, outperforming previous methods in both synthetic and real-world tests.

8 shares70 citations todaySource ↗

09

Mosaic3D: Dataset for Open-Vocabulary 3D Segmentation

Dataset for Open-Vocabulary 3D Segmentation: Mosaic3D, a new data generation and training framework, has been introduced for understanding 3D scenes, creating a large-scale dataset and achieving top results in 3D semantic and instance segmentation tasks.

7 shares24 citations todaySource ↗

GitHub

Repositories the letter featured.

10 items

Finance5

01

Python DS Handbook in Jupyter

The article provides the full text of the Python Data Science Handbook in Jupyter Notebook format.

45,621 shares

02

QuantAgent Code

The article presents the official programming code for the QuantAgent software.

122 shares

05

Kuzu Embedded Property Graph DB

The article describes a fast property graph database with built-in vector and full-text search capabilities.

3,361 shares

Trending5

01

AHK Macro Creation

AutoHotkey is a software that allows users to automate tasks and create macros on Windows.

11,131 shares

02

jgraphdrawiodesktop Electron

Draw's official electron build, a framework for creating desktop applications, is now accessible.

57,046 shares

03

llmd Distributed Inference

Llmd improves the efficiency of distributed LLM inference on the Kubernetes platform.

1,813 shares

05

MengRaofmtlog Library

Fmtlog is a fast logging library, similar to fmtlib, that offers nanosecond latency.

932 shares

News

Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.

20 items

Quantitative10

01

Japan Election Volatility

Hedge funds like Epic Partners and K2 Asset Management are planning to capitalize on Japan's close leadership contest.

6 shares

04

CoinShares Acquires Bastion

CoinShares plans to buy London's Bastion Asset Management to boost its active management skills.

3 shares

06

Workiva Valuation Plan

Irenic Capital Management, a shareholder in Workiva Inc, suggests strategies to increase the software company's share value.

3 shares

07

Danish Tax Authority Loss

Denmark's tax authority, SKAT, loses a £1.9bn lawsuit against hedge fund manager Sanjay Shah over cumex dividend tax schemes.

2 shares

09

Brevan Howard Boosts US Team

Brevan Howard expands its New York team with Portfolio Manager Hsu from Two Sigma, starting in December.

2 shares

Miscellaneous10

01

Global Payments Board

Global Payments has added Patricia Watson and Archana Deskus to its board of directors, following stakebuilding by Elliott Investment Management.

2 shares

02

MasterQuant

MasterQuant's AI trading bot, The Trade Machine, is transforming the landscape of smart investing.

2 shares

03

Digital Assets Outflows

Despite a $812m outflow last week, digital asset investment products have seen strong YTD inflows of $39.6bn, nearly equalling last year's record, says CoinShares.

2 shares

04

Greenlight Analyst Info Sharing

Ex-Greenlight Capital analyst, James Fishback, has admitted to leaking confidential information and agreed to cover the hedge fund's legal expenses in a lawsuit against him.

2 shares

05

Hedge Funds London Cocoa

Hedge funds have turned bearish on London cocoa for the first time in three years, anticipating increased global supplies after a major crunch in West Africa.

2 shares

06

Qube Hires 300 in UK

Qube Research has seen substantial growth due to a year of aggressive recruitment.

1 shares

07

Hedge Funds Converge

The article provides a comparative analysis of prop shops and pod shops.

1 shares

Podcasts

Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.

10 items

Quantitative5

01

Evolution of Advisors

Mark Longo and Matt Amberson discuss the growth of options trading, the emergence of zeroDTE trading, and the potential influence of AI on this sector.

12 shares

02

EM Fixed Income Growth

Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova, and Ben Ramsey analyze recent market trends and their effects on the EM fixed income asset class.

8 shares

03

Global Active Fixed Income

Colin Reedie and Jason Shoup highlight the advantages of a global strategy in managing fixed income assets and the current market dynamics impacting investors globally.

6 shares

04

Role of Data in AI Exchanges

In a Goldman Sachs podcast, Neema Raphael and George Lee explore the role of data in either facilitating or hindering the advancement of AI.

6 shares

05

Marty Bicknell: Wealth Shipwright

Wealth Shipwright: Marty Bicknell, CEO of Mariner, shares his experiences on the expansion of his wealth advisory firm and his thoughts on entrepreneurship, leadership, and the future of wealth management.

6 shares

Related5

01

AI CapEx Risk

Kai Wu discusses the AI-driven capital cycle and its potential risks in the LeadLag Live podcast.

4 shares

02

Fountain of Youth

Alex Gunz talks about the investment potential in longevity science, including genomics and personalized medicine, in an interview with Andrew Wilkinson.

3 shares

03

MacroVoices 500

Lyn Alden shares her perspective on the current economic situation and potential solutions in the MacroVoices podcast.

2 shares

04

AI Arms Race

Andrew Wilkinson, Max Chen, and Derek Yan debate the pros and cons of investing in AI startups versus established tech companies.

2 shares

05

Opportunity in Volatility

Andrew Wilkinson, Steve Sosnick, and Steve Sears discuss the SpiderMan Market trend, where investors overlook negative news and continue investing.

2 shares

X / Twitter

Posts from quant researchers on X.

4 items

Quantitative2

01

Research Recap Highlights

The recent weekly research recap covers topics like predictability of crypto returns, estimation of inflation risk premium, intraday stock-bond correlations, and equity style allocation.

1 shares

Miscellaneous2

02

Execs' AI Partner Preferences

The article discloses that 153 MIT executives with substantial AI budgets favor an AI partner who comprehends their workflows and offers effective advice over one that merely provides advanced technology.

0 shares

Reddit

Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.

6 items

Quantitative1

Rising5

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