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Quant LetterNo. 104

July 2025, Week 1

162 items across 10 sections, as sent to readers on 3 July 2025. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.

arXiv

Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.

26 items

Finance8

01

Deep Hedging

The study uses deep neural networks to enhance portfolio risk management, leading to significant risk reduction and practical market strategy insights.

23 sharesSource ↗

02

Posterior Drift

The research warns about the sensitivity of large linear machine learning models in predicting equity premiums, suggesting caution in their use.

7 sharesSource ↗

03

Predicting Fed's Next Move

The study reveals that combining structured data with unstructured text from Federal Reserve communications improves the accuracy of central bank policy predictions.

4 sharesSource ↗

04

Customer Lifetime Value

The research presents a framework that uses Open Banking data to estimate customer value across firms, potentially boosting profitability by 21.06%.

4 sharesSource ↗

05

Predicting Fed's Next Move

Hybrid models that blend structured data with Federal Reserve communications are more effective in predicting central bank policy changes, especially in U.S. federal funds rate shifts.

4 sharesSource ↗

06

SABRMTGP

The SABR-MTGP method, which views the creation of the Implied Volatility Surface as a multi-task learning issue, performs better than standard Gaussian process regression and SABR under different market conditions.

4 sharesSource ↗

07

Local Volatility in Cheyette Model

An analytical approximation for the local volatility function in the Cheyette interest rate model has been developed, expanding the Dupire framework to fixed-income markets and aiding model calibration.

4 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

08

Pricing Fractal Derivatives

A study on derivative securities pricing in markets modeled by a sub-mixed fractional Brownian motion with jumps shows the model's precision and adaptability in capturing market phenomena like memory and heavy-tailed jumps, especially for barrier options.

3 sharesSource ↗

Economics8

01

Violence Impact on Migration in Afghanistan

Research using satellite imagery and phone records shows that long-term conflict, such as Taliban control, impacts seasonal migration in Afghanistan, but extreme violent events do not significantly disrupt labor flows.

10 sharesSource ↗

02

LLMs Impact on Developers

Large language models like ChatGPT can boost productivity and knowledge sharing among Open-Source Software developers, especially in complex or rapidly changing contexts.

7 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

03

Global Energy Demand and Temperature

A study found that global residential energy demand rises at temperatures below -5 degrees Celsius and above 30 degrees Celsius, with developed countries more sensitive to high temperatures.

2 sharesSource ↗

04

Tracking Affordability of Healthy Diets

Two Food Policy articles promote the use of least-cost benchmark diets to monitor and improve food security, offering a new indicator of food access and guiding interventions for universal access to healthy diets.

2 shares4 citations todaySource ↗

08

Global Textile Supply Chain Disruptions

The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have disrupted global textile and fashion supply chains, causing order cancellations, layoffs, and a shift towards automation and digitalization.

2 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

Miscellaneous1

01

Preserving Human Autonomy in AI Decision-Support

The article explores the effects of AI on specialized fields, noting its potential to diminish skill and value. It suggests a framework for creating AI systems that maintain human autonomy in these areas.

6 shares30 citations todaySource ↗

Crypto & Blockchain4

01

Decentralised Fund Framework

A new decentralized framework for capital allocation combines multiple strategies and allows both humans and AI to participate in strategy development and allocation, all implemented on-chain.

7 sharesSource ↗

02

FairMarket-RL: Fairness Shaping

Fairness Shaping: FairMarket-RL, a hybrid model combining Large Language Models and Reinforcement Learning, is introduced to create fairness-aware trading agents in a simulated microgrid, leading to more equitable outcomes.

7 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

03

Multifractality in Bitcoin Volatility

Rough volatility models are found to be misaligned with Bitcoin volatility due to a multifractal structure that contradicts the homogeneity assumptions of rough volatility estimation.

4 sharesSource ↗

04

Optimal Benchmark Design

A study using a model inspired by blockchain smart contracts reveals that the best price benchmark varies based on the significance of fixed and variable manipulation costs.

4 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending5

01

RobustiPy Library

RobustiPy is a new Python tool for analyzing model uncertainty, providing efficient methods for confidence intervals, model selection, and out-of-sample evaluation.

32 sharesSource ↗

02

Hidden Costs of Passive Investing

Passive investing can lead to higher costs than strategies that gradually acquire shares, with traders earning significant profits from providing liquidity at reconstitution events.

12 sharesSource ↗

03

Suspense in European Football

The suspense and surprise of sports matches could be used as alternative policy targets for league organizers, as analysis shows lower suspense for top teams and consistent surprise values.

11 sharesSource ↗

04

Empirical Diversification Estimator

The Diversification Quotient (DQ) is a robust measure of portfolio diversification, showing more resilience under various distributional settings than the diversification ratio (DR).

11 sharesSource ↗

05

Narrative Shift Detection Approach

Large Language Models combined with topic models can model narrative shifts over time, but they struggle to differentiate between content and narrative shifts, as shown in a study of The Wall Street Journal articles.

7 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

SSRN

Working papers in finance and economics from SSRN.

30 items

Quantitative15

04

NonParametric Inflation Model

The paper presents a new inflation model that shows inflation reacts more to larger shocks due to nonlinear shock transmission.

64 shares4 citations todaySource ↗

08

NLP Axioms in Tamil Dialects

The study examines the challenges and opportunities in using Machine Learning for processing Classical Tamil language and its dialects, with a focus on linguistic and cultural aspects.

13 sharesSource ↗

09

Simulation Study for Port Flows

The research uses a simulation model and machine learning to analyze import container flows at the Port of New York-New Jersey, showing improved accuracy.

27 sharesSource ↗

10

AI in Tourism: Kerala Study

Kerala Study: The study introduces the SMART AI-Driven Tourism Marketing Framework to boost tourist engagement in Kerala, noting a lack of AI-based strategies in the region's tourism marketing.

14 sharesSource ↗

12

Resilient Supply Chain Design

The article proposes a framework for building supply chain resilience during large-scale disruptions, based on an analysis of successful global brands.

42 sharesSource ↗

13

Stock Returns in Supply Chain Pressure

The study explores the effect of global supply chain pressures on U.S. stock market returns, providing insights for corporate managers on risk management and supply chain strategy.

20 sharesSource ↗

14

Unified Econometrics Discipline

The article discusses the rapid growth and transformation of econometrics, highlighting advances in the analysis of cross-sectional data, policy analysis, and time series techniques.

23 sharesSource ↗

15

AI and Relationship Lending in Banking

The research studies the interaction between banks' use of AI in credit scoring and relationship lending, finding that AI investments help banks manage the effects of relationship lending on firms' credit supply and decisions.

33 shares3 citations todaySource ↗

Financial15

05

Currency Markets: FOMC Announcement Premia

FOMC Announcement Premia: Currency risk premiums fluctuate on U.S. FOMC announcement days, with currencies expecting a larger reduction in implied variance earning significantly higher returns.

213 sharesSource ↗

07

Personal Finance Knowledge of WPI Students

College students' financial and economic understanding improves with more finance/economic courses, but significant gaps in general financial knowledge and misconceptions about financial tools persist.

43 sharesSource ↗

10

The Bond Agio Premium

Investors should be rewarded for the increased default risk associated with higher-priced bonds, an aspect overlooked by common measures like yield or Z and I spreads.

59 sharesSource ↗

11

Public Loans Allocation in Covid-19

During the pandemic, government-backed loans were more often given to safer, liquidity-strapped borrowers, who were less likely to struggle with repayments later.

25 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

12

Tax Losses and Capped Call Spreads

Capital-loss carryforwards can be assessed using option-pricing, providing a consistent market basis for determining when these strategies offer real economic benefits.

67 sharesSource ↗

13

Returns to Scale in Fund Management

Fund managers can mitigate the adverse effects of competition on fund alpha by adjusting their level of active management, especially in response to competition from passive funds.

29 sharesSource ↗

14

Unit Roots in Macro Variables

A study of 43 macroeconomic variables across the G7 economies over 200 years shows evidence of mean reversion in the U.S. and significant differences between countries.

37 sharesSource ↗

15

Inflation Risk and Production Cost

Companies with high fixed costs have a negative reaction to inflation surprises, primarily due to variable costs, which form the majority of the cost structure and are positively linked with inflation beta.

35 sharesSource ↗

RePEc

Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.

30 items

Finance6

01

Enhanced EM Portfolios with AATS

A new Automated Adaptive Trading System may help stabilize emerging markets during downturns, addressing issues caused by the rise of algorithmic trading and passive investing.

27 sharesSource ↗

04

Adaptive Market Hypothesis

The research compares trading strategies globally and finds that Sharpe Ratio-based strategies are more profitable than the buy-and-hold strategy, supporting the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

15 sharesSource ↗

05

Novel Window Analysis

The study introduces a new method for assessing decision-making units' efficiency over time, using the Whale Optimization Algorithm to identify stable trading strategies and companies.

11 sharesSource ↗

06

Monitoring Poverty in Lebanon

The article uses a new data augmentation technique to analyze poverty in the Middle East and North Africa, highlighting the significance of using alternative data sources for poverty analysis.

10 sharesSource ↗

Statistical5

Machine Learning7

01

Machine Learning for M&A

Machine learning models are more effective than traditional methods in predicting Chinese corporate merger and acquisition activities, with certain variables impacting prediction accuracy.

28 sharesSource ↗

02

Tail Risk Management

Two new deep learning frameworks have been proposed for estimating financial risk measures, outperforming existing methods and aiding in better capital allocation for financial institutions.

27 sharesSource ↗

03

Bond Market Volatility Forecasting

The volatility of long-term treasury bond contracts, especially 10-year ones, can predict Chinese stock market volatility, with machine learning methods offering more accurate forecasts than traditional models.

24 sharesSource ↗

04

Lot Streaming and Scheduling

The article proposes a new algorithm and machine learning model to enhance efficiency and accuracy in the Lot Streaming and Scheduling Problem (LSSP) with unpredictable product arrival times.

16 sharesSource ↗

05

Dynamics in Chinese Financial Markets

The paper introduces a new machine learning technique for decomposing and analyzing complex time series, providing a potential alternative to the Box-Jenkins method in financial modeling.

13 sharesSource ↗

07

Housing Market Quantile Connectedness

The research uses machine learning to study the global housing market's interconnectedness, identifying the US market as the main source of systematic shocks with its interest rate as the most influential factor.

10 sharesSource ↗

Deep Learning2

01

Oil Price Forecasting: ML vs. DL

ML vs. DL: Deep learning methods have been found to be more effective than traditional machine learning in predicting oil prices, especially during crises.

31 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending10

01

Predicting VIX Trends

The study uses machine learning to predict the CBOE Volatility Index, highlighting the importance of weekly jobless claim data in enhancing trading strategies.

23 sharesSource ↗

02

Stock Price Prediction

The research finds traditional models more effective than machine learning and deep learning models in predicting stock price movements in the Eurozone banking sector.

13 sharesSource ↗

03

AI Capability Impact

The paper suggests that a data-driven culture and AI infrastructure are key to enhancing firm performance with AI capability.

5 sharesSource ↗

04

Climate Discussions

The study uses machine learning to analyze social media discussions on climate change, advocating for diverse policies and a holistic approach to achieve net-zero goals.

4 sharesSource ↗

05

Dark Patterns in Retail

The article discusses the problem of dark patterns in online retail investment platforms, proposing the use of behavioral sciences and AI for better regulation and investor protection.

2 sharesSource ↗

08

EGovernance and Citizen Participation

The review investigates the link between e-governance initiatives and citizen participation, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary research to assess these initiatives' effectiveness.

2 sharesSource ↗

09

Bank Performance Determinants

The paper analyzes literature on the factors influencing banks' performance, proposing new research areas in digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and the impact of COVID-19.

1 sharesSource ↗

Machine learning

The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.

10 items

Historical Trending10

01

QLASS: Language Agent

Language Agent: QLASS is a new system designed to enhance the performance of language agents by offering step-by-step guidance and Q-value estimations, even with minimal supervision.

188 shares19 citations todaySource ↗

02

Decision Theory for Prediction

The study establishes a link between prediction uncertainty and risk-averse decision-making, resulting in a new algorithm, Risk-Averse Calibration (RAC), that optimizes action policies.

20 shares46 citations todaySource ↗

03

RoPEs: Position Encodings

Position Encodings: STRING, a Rotary Position Encodings extension, offers exact translation invariance and efficient 3D token representation, useful in robotics and object detection.

13 shares20 citations todaySource ↗

04

LoRAX: Model Adaptation

Model Adaptation: LoRA-X is a new method that allows the transfer of LoRA parameters across models without original or synthetic training data, proving effective in text-to-image generation.

13 shares11 citations todaySource ↗

05

Particle Trajectory Learning

PoLAr-MAE, a self-supervised masked modeling framework, is introduced for 3D particle trajectory analysis in Time Projection Chambers, achieving high classification scores without labeled data.

10 shares9 citations todaySource ↗

06

Articulate Anymesh

Articulate Anymesh is a new system that transforms any 3D mesh into a movable object, broadening the scope of 3D datasets and assisting in the development of robotic object manipulation skills.

10 shares53 citations todaySource ↗

07

SeedVR

SeedVR, a diffusion transformer, is capable of restoring real-world videos of any length and resolution, outperforming existing methods and excelling in both synthetic and real-world tests.

8 shares70 citations todaySource ↗

08

Hierarchical Sparse Bayesian Model

A new hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model has been developed for multi-task binary classification learning, showing strong results in predicting human health based on microbiome profiles.

8 shares1 citation todaySource ↗

09

Mosaic3D

Mosaic3D, a new data generation and training framework, has been introduced for understanding 3D scenes, achieving top results in 3D semantic and instance segmentation tasks.

7 shares24 citations todaySource ↗

10

COCONut-PanCap

The COCONut-PanCap dataset, featuring advanced panoptic masks and detailed captions, improves panoptic segmentation and image captioning, setting a new standard for model evaluation on joint tasks.

6 shares14 citations todaySource ↗

Papers with code

Papers that shipped their code, from the Papers with Code feed (2023-25).

15 items

Trending7

01

PyTorch: Deep Learning Library

Deep Learning Library: The article explores the trade-off between user-friendliness and performance in deep learning platforms.

91,080 shares

02

Absorbing States in Reinforcement Learning

The research indicates that the complexity of supervised learning tasks grows with the number of absorbing states, but attention can adjust to different input sizes.

18,319 shares

03

Quantized Training of Decision Trees

The article emphasizes the widespread success of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees in diverse machine learning tasks recently.

17,344 shares

04

LLM Alignment Survey

The paper offers an in-depth analysis of alignment algorithms used in Multi-Level Language Models (MLLMs).

15,657 shares

07

Efficient Inference Engine

The article explores the growing trend of implementing deep learning models on mobile devices.

12,096 shares

Rising8

01

RAGAs Framework

The article presents RAGAs, a new framework for assessing Retrieval Augmented Generation pipelines without a reference.

9,688 shares

02

GPT Bias Study

The study examines the effectiveness of different GPT detectors using English writing samples from both native and non-native speakers.

7,496 shares

03

ML Serving Desiderata

The article emphasizes the crucial role of inference in the infrastructure of machine learning software.

4,559 shares

04

Enhanced minimap2 Alignment

The paper highlights recent enhancements to minimap2, a flexible aligner for nucleotide sequences.

1,988 shares

05

Hyperbolic Data Distillation

Dataset distillation condenses large datasets for deep learning without compromising model performance.

1,701 shares

06

SymbolicAI Logic Framework

A new framework uses in-context learning to create and assess explainable computational graphs.

1,416 shares

07

Deep Learning for SingleCell Analysis

The article reviews the latest advancements in classical and deep learning methods, outlining their strengths and weaknesses.

1,401 shares

GitHub

Repositories the letter featured.

10 items

Finance5

01

Winner Takes All

The article explores a winner-takes-all strategy for predicting multivariate probabilistic time series.

24 shares

02

Kalman Filter for Python

The piece presents a Python-based tool for implementing the Kalman Filter Smoother and EM Algorithm.

1,196 shares

03

Automated Speedrunning Benchmark

The article introduces the Automated LLM Speedrunning Benchmark, a performance measurement tool for LLM agents in language modeling.

57 shares

04

Efficient Scaling Library for RL

The article discusses a new, user-friendly scaling library designed for large language model reinforcement learning.

1,267 shares

05

Python SEC Filings API

The piece details a Python SEC EDGAR Filings API, supporting over 18 million filings and 150 types, with features like full-text search and real-time stream API.

241 shares

Trending5

02

Oraios Serena Toolkit

The article reviews a coding toolkit integrated with MCP server Agno, featuring semantic retrieval and editing.

3,218 shares

03

Ryoppippicc Usage CLI Tool

The article presents a CLI tool for analyzing Claude Code usage from local JSONL files.

2,945 shares

04

RapidFuzz String Matching

The article provides a guide on executing quick fuzzy string matching in Python using various string metrics.

3,193 shares

05

YouTube Transcript API

The article introduces a Python API for extracting transcripts or subtitles from YouTube videos.

5,567 shares

News

Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.

17 items

Quantitative8

01

Citi Hits Record in Hedge Fund FX Volume

Citigroup saw a 23% increase in FX trading volumes from hedge fund clients in the first four months of 2025, reaching $6.1tn due to volatility and infrastructure investment.

7 shares

02

Crypto Hedge Fund Partners with World Liberty

Re7 Capital, a cryptocurrency hedge fund, is partnering with World Liberty Financial, a Trump family-linked platform, supported by a $10m investment from VMS Group.

6 shares

03

Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Gains in H1

Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha fund surpassed the hedge fund industry with a 17% gain in the first half of 2025 due to volatile macro conditions.

5 shares

05

Denmark Recovers Funds

Denmark's tax agency has recovered €232m from funds associated with hedge fund founder Sanjay Shah, who is involved in the CumEx dividend tax fraud.

3 shares

06

Parvus Increases Stake

Parvus Asset Management, a London-based hedge fund, has increased its stake in French luxury group Kering to about 5%, says France's AMF regulator.

3 shares

07

Digital Assets Funds Raise

Digital asset investment products saw $2.7bn in inflows last week, marking the 11th straight week of gains and bringing H1 totals near last year's $17.8bn, according to CoinShares.

3 shares

08

PanAgora Appoints Director

PanAgora Asset Management has named Tim Stanton as Managing Director Head of Global Distribution, giving him responsibility for the firm's institutional growth initiatives.

3 shares

Miscellaneous9

01

Hedge Funds Buy US Banks

Goldman Sachs data reveals that hedge funds are buying US bank stocks at the highest rate in nearly 10 years, expecting more growth in the sector.

3 shares

02

Whetstone Tech Stock Surge

Whetstone Capital, a $250m hedge fund, recorded its best monthly performance with a 21% return in May by investing in undervalued growth stocks.

2 shares

05

Citadel trails smaller managers

Ken Griffin's hedge fund, Citadel, recorded a modest 2.5% gain in H1 2025, underperforming rivals Balyasny and ExodusPoint.

1 shares

06

King Street closes real estate fund

King Street Capital Management hit its $950m cap for its latest European real estate fund in a year, amid a distressed property market.

1 shares

07

Goldman Sachs MD shines

A 28-year-old individual has been promoted to Managing Director at Goldman Sachs.

1 shares

08

Supreme Court to hear FS appeal

The US Supreme Court is set to hear a case that could affect how activist hedge funds challenge corporate governance in closed-end funds.

1 shares

09

ASL demands Avadel board

ASL Strategic Value Fund is calling for a board reshuffle at Avadel Pharmaceuticals, criticizing the company's handling of its narcolepsy drug Lumryz's launch.

1 shares

Podcasts

Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.

10 items

Quantitative5

01

Victor Haghani on Market Prediction

Victor Haghani discusses the significance of position sizing, disciplined asset allocation, and the role of foreign stocks in investment strategy on a podcast.

15 shares

02

Bitwise Jeff Park on Bitcoin

Jeff Park introduces his Radical Portfolio Theory, challenging the traditional 60/40 model, and discusses the role of Bitcoin and decentralized assets in portfolio resilience.

14 shares

03

US Rates DM Swap Spread

Ipek Ozil and Khagendra Gupta discuss the main drivers of DM swap spreads, focusing on US and German swap spreads, in a JPMorgan Chase & Co. podcast.

11 shares

04

Inside the BDH with Patrick Wieland

Patrick Wieland shares his trading philosophy, mental strategies, and the effort behind his success as a futures day trading streamer in a podcast episode.

11 shares

05

Global FX Derivatives

Arindam Sandilya, Juan Duran-Vara, and Ladislav Jankovic discuss FX Derivatives themes for the second half of 2025, including carry, USD skew, correlations, and directional exposure in JPY and EUR.

9 shares

Related5

01

Global Commodities Update

The podcast discusses the current state of agricultural markets, noting that increased supply is being met by demand, resulting in a decrease in global agricultural commodity availability.

5 shares

02

MarketAxess Block Update

The podcast features a conversation on block trading in fixed income with experts from MarketAxess, and updates on a related class action lawsuit.

4 shares

03

European Rates Update

The podcast covers recent German fiscal and NATO events, perspectives on carry as a theme, updates on dedollarisation flows, and opinions on UK rates.

3 shares

04

Thematic Markets Interview

The podcast includes a discussion with Marvin Barth about his career, his work at the Federal Reserve, and his views on the global political economy.

3 shares

05

Global FX Update

The podcast discusses upcoming trends for currencies in the second half of 2025, with insights from the DM and EM FX strategy team.

3 shares

X / Twitter

Posts from quant researchers on X.

4 items

Quantitative2

01

Investing Research Roundup

The recent investment research explores subjects like asset distribution, currency crashes, momentum, fluctuating factor risk premiums, and predictability in prediction markets.

3 shares

02

Turtle Talk: Trend Following

Trend Following: Article 2: Turtle Talk, a useful tool offering important information on trend following, has been found and suggested.

1 shares

Miscellaneous2

01

AI Trends Survey

Article: The article emphasizes the significance of AI talent in setting apart AI trends based on a survey.

0 shares

02

Buying and Sizing Correctly

Article: The article underscores the importance of purchase quantity and correct sizing in preventing bankruptcy, even with incorrect choices, based on an episode review.

0 shares

Reddit

Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.

10 items

Quantitative5

Rising5

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