Financial Stability in Investments
Financial investment network stability is affected by portfolio diversification and investment variety, with diversification's impact varying based on the network's connectivity.
24 sharesSource ↗
Quant LetterNo. 84
168 items across 10 sections, as sent to readers on 5 February 2025. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.
Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.
28 items
Financial investment network stability is affected by portfolio diversification and investment variety, with diversification's impact varying based on the network's connectivity.
24 sharesSource ↗
Stock Analysis: MarketSenseAI, a stock analysis tool, uses Large Language Models to analyze financial news, improving analysis accuracy and outperforming the market index.
9 shares20 citations todaySource ↗
Two new quantum mechanical versions of the Black-Scholes model have been developed, including a noncommutative quantum mechanics version and a related model for the Merton-Garman family.
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Risk Capital Debate: The paper argues against the Basel Committee's Standardized Measurement Approach for operational risk capital, advocating for the Advanced Measurement Approach and proposing standardization for internal operational risk modeling.
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The project presents a trading system that uses Large Language Models to analyze market sentiment in real-time, using data from financial news and social media to create trading signals.
5 shares3 citations todaySource ↗
The research applies quantum cognition machine learning to distance metric learning in corporate bond markets, outperforming traditional models in high-yield markets and performing similarly or better in investment grade markets.
5 shares4 citations todaySource ↗
The study examines the random structures of dry bulk shipping networks, highlighting the trade dynamics contributing to this randomness and the impact of events like the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine conflict.
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The paper combines Large Language Models with decision-focused learning to improve prediction and decision quality in portfolio optimization, outperforming other deep learning models.
4 shares19 citations todaySource ↗
The paper discusses a semi-analytical method for pricing American options in models with negative interest rates or convenience yields, indicating that exercise boundaries may have a floating structure in such scenarios.
4 shares2 citations todaySource ↗
The article explores the use of deep neural networks in business decision making, particularly in financial prediction, suggesting a stronger framework can be created by combining multiple networks.
9 shares4 citations todaySource ↗
The study uses machine learning to analyze the link between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia, revealing significant disparities and recommending targeted interventions.
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The study tests the reproducibility of Scott Orr's method for identifying productivity differences within plants, successfully replicating it with data from 2000-2007, but finding issues with the suggested variables in a 2011-2020 sample.
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The paper presents a test of capacity-constrained learning models, finding that choice data aligns with these models if a No Improving Switches condition is met, and offering insights into how incentives affect attention levels.
6 shares1 citation todaySource ↗
Research indicates a zero-growth economy could be more stable with fewer crises and lower unemployment, but may increase inflation and financial risk.
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A study on patent citation networks suggests that network structure affects technological improvement rates, with organizational differences impacting invention rates.
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The price drops and adoption rates of emerging technologies like solar power and AI are interconnected, aiding in the creation of more sophisticated technology adoption models.
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The paper presents a model for determining winners in a multi-round auction for formulary positions, based on net unit prices after rebates and expected demand.
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The research discusses the inconsistency in the value of a call option in constant elasticity processes, attributing it to initial data not fitting the Tacklind class and lack of boundary conditions for some indicators.
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A study using a large language model to analyze economics peer reviews found that while it can identify paper quality, it shows biases and struggles to differentiate high-quality AI-generated papers, suggesting a need for careful integration and mixed peer review models.
10 shares8 citations todaySource ↗
The study investigates the problem of maximizing utility in the reinforcement learning framework, revealing that excessive exploration can lead to ill-posedness in some cases, and suggests a reinforcement learning algorithm that highlights the benefits of reinforcement learning.
5 shares1 citation todaySource ↗
The research provides a mathematical examination of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges, particularly constant function market makers, and investigates conditions for no-arbitrage, the effect of transaction fees on impermanent loss, and the efficiency of the Uniswap v3 platform.
10 shares5 citations todaySource ↗
Peer Reviews Payment: The article suggests a solution to the flawed peer-review process in AI conferences by compensating reviewers with cryptocurrency, with submission fees covering review costs and a levy for conference management.
8 sharesSource ↗
The study examines progress in deep learning methods for detecting financial fraud, reviewing 57 studies from 2019 to 2024, and discusses challenges and opportunities such as data privacy, feature engineering, and model interpretability.
3 shares51 citations todaySource ↗
The article proposes combining market governance mechanisms with traditional regulations to incentivize responsible AI development.
19 shares8 citations todaySource ↗
The study shows exponential growth in AI through patents, publications, and machine learning benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of AI researchers.
14 shares2 citations todaySource ↗
The research reveals a strong link between director coreness in Denmark's corporate networks and their likelihood of joining government committees.
13 shares1 citation todaySource ↗
The report finds that LSTM models are more effective than ARIMA models in predicting the S&P 500 index due to their ability to handle volatile financial data.
12 shares11 citations todaySource ↗
The article offers a simplified explanation of patent rights, aiming to make them understandable to a broad audience, including students, legal scholars, policymakers, and the public.
11 sharesSource ↗
Working papers in finance and economics from SSRN.
33 items
Hedge funds that react more to monetary policy changes tend to have higher returns, likely because they use government announcements to forecast market futures.
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A study on the Indian stock market shows that a portfolio strategy based on price momentum is effective, with top-performing stocks continuing to excel and underperforming stocks continuing to lag.
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Mutual funds in the municipal bond market affect cross-market pricing, with bonds sensitive to the stock market showing higher yield spreads due to potential sales induced by fund flows.
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Low Risk High Variability: Research indicates that stocks with less volatility yield higher returns, with portfolio construction and transaction costs significantly impacting low-risk portfolio performance.
182 sharesSource ↗
The quadratic normal model is effectively applied to the pricing and hedging of oil options, showing potential for equity index futures and 10-year Treasury Note futures.
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The New Kind of Science Artificial Market Model is introduced, simulating complex financial market behaviors and mimicking real-world financial market characteristics.
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The study reveals that short interest in corporate bonds is a stronger predictor of aggregate stock returns than short interest in stocks and other known predictors.
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A unifying mathematical framework is presented that connects five major paradigms in modern generative modeling through optimal transport theory and other concepts.
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The study shows that retail investors in China trade against anomaly prescriptions, while institutions trade in line with anomalies, influenced by lottery stock preference and return extrapolation.
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Research identifies firm size, investment-related features, and equity stock attributes as the most influential factors in portfolio adjustments for equity mutual funds investing in emerging markets.
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Chinese digital platforms are enhancing financial literacy and investment habits, especially among older, less wealthy, and novice users.
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Climate-linked bonds could convert around 3% of government debt in major economies, offering a safeguard against long-term climate risks.
8 shares3 citations todaySource ↗
Revolution vs Gimmick: The TRUMP meme coin, introduced in 2025, showcases the speculative and unstable nature of meme coins, reflecting societal values and exposing cryptocurrency industry conflicts.
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Stock liquidity greatly affects the price premiums of cross-linked A and H shares, with reduced liquidity in A-shares significantly reducing the AH price premium.
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Portfolio Inertia vs Expected Returns: Expected excess returns in currency markets can result from portfolio adjustment costs, not just risk premiums, as evidenced in data from nine inflation-targeting economies with floating exchange rates.
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A novel method for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) uses deep learning to aggregate firm-level return predictions, resulting in a net cumulative return of about 768% from 2000 to 2021.
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US sectoral stock market volatility is significantly affected by different geopolitical risk categories, with sectors reacting more to terror threats than actual terror acts or war escalations.
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Expectations, Institutions, Preferences: Variations in homeownership rates and housing wealth across countries can be attributed to factors like house price expectations, housing market institutional setup, and household preferences.
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The article presents a new model that aligns historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles, using two specific mathematical models.
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The work introduces a new method for risk parity portfolio optimization, allowing for constraints on risk contribution and supporting diversified long-short portfolios.
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The study assesses the performance of two major FinTech mutual funds in India, highlighting the importance of selecting profitable funds for investment.
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The paper discusses the impact of heterogeneity on macroeconomic modeling, particularly in relation to monetary and fiscal policy transmission.
397 sharesSource ↗
The paper develops a system for predicting distress in large European banks using machine learning, with the random forest model proving most effective.
23 shares1 citation todaySource ↗
The study uses Genetic Algorithms to simplify and improve accuracy in Credit Risk Modeling, particularly for default prediction and reducing Loss Given Default.
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The article introduces a pricing model for power exchange options that takes into account liquidity risk and counterparty default risk, demonstrating the influence of market liquidity on options prices.
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A new framework for stock investment selection has been proposed, using time series subpatterns and multirelationship fusion to better understand stock market relationships.
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The study reveals that geopolitical risk significantly impacts financial stress, with a positive correlation between credit, equity, and volatility variables.
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A framework for applying normalizing flows to credit risk modeling is presented, offering robust default time estimation, dependency modeling, and portfolio risk assessment.
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The overreaction hypothesis is confirmed in the Chinese corn futures market, with a reduction in overreaction after the introduction of night trading.
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Financial intermediation and efficiency of financial institutions reduce growth volatility in the long run, but excessive finance might increase growth volatility.
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MLFOLD, a machine learning-driven approach, is proposed for designing and optimizing all-optical XOR, OR, and NOT logic gates on a single photonic crystal substrate.
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An ARIMA-GARCH model is developed to forecast changes in the VIX, achieving a direction prediction accuracy of 56.01% but struggles to replicate extreme VIX spikes.
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The study uses GNAR models to forecast the realized covariance matrix of a subset of S&P 500 stocks, reducing forecasting errors during volatile trading days.
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Economics working papers from RePEc's NEP field reports.
30 items
The Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) enhances investment returns by diversifying risk factors, particularly beneficial in private markets.
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A new model using instrumented principal component analysis (IPCA) predicts country equity risk premia better, especially for emerging markets.
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Machine Learning can produce misleading results in financial models that assume linearity, necessitating careful application.
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Logarithmic transformation of raw volatility measure is the most effective for asset price volatility forecasting.
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High-performing US tech stocks, like FAANG, can offer diversification and act as safe havens for Bitcoin and Ethereum investors.
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A new portfolio optimization framework balances systemic and individual risk, revealing potential inefficiencies in current portfolio structures.
14 sharesSource ↗
The study identifies CPI price percent and CPI index as common factors affecting stock price volatility in BRICS countries during global financial and COVID-19 crises.
14 sharesSource ↗
The paper shows that using Value-at-Risk increases losses, while Expected Shortfall reduces losses in a portfolio choice problem for log-returns in a complete market.
14 sharesSource ↗
The paper finds that CoVaR fluctuated significantly after the COVID-19 outbreak, using the GARCHSK-Vine Copula-CoVaR methodology to study dependencies and risk spillovers among various markets.
14 sharesSource ↗
The study reveals that the introduction of ProShares bitcoin strategy ETF significantly alters the investor structure and enhances market liquidity in Chicago Mercantile Exchange bitcoin futures.
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The paper finds that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacts the dynamic total connectedness between volatility indexes and worldwide ESG leaders’ equity markets.
13 sharesSource ↗
The paper finds that the Russia Ukraine conflict affected both standard green bonds and green inclusive bonds markets, with the latter showing stronger resilience.
13 sharesSource ↗
The study suggests an optimal shrinkage intensity selection for the linear shrinkage estimator family, which results in more stable covariance matrix estimators and improves global minimum-variance portfolios.
12 sharesSource ↗
The study reveals that combining different forecasting models can greatly enhance the accuracy of predicting cryptocurrency volatility. This can provide crucial information for investors looking to improve risk management strategies in cryptocurrency markets.
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The study uses machine learning to discover that cash holdings, tangible assets, industry leverage-level, and firm size significantly influence the zero-leverage phenomenon.
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Bond returns can be strongly predicted using machine learning models that utilize both cross-sectional and time-series predictors, according to the study.
13 sharesSource ↗
The research uses machine learning to predict table tennis game outcomes based on new technical-tactical style metrics, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy.
13 sharesSource ↗
The paper introduces the Ordered Forest, a new machine learning estimator for ordered choice models, which estimates conditional choice probabilities and marginal effects.
13 sharesSource ↗
The paper proposes new optimization models for Support Vector Machine using robust optimization techniques, demonstrating their superiority over various SVM alternatives.
12 sharesSource ↗
The article discusses a deep learning algorithm designed to detect financial asset bubbles using observed call option prices. This algorithm was tested on tech stock market data and under different models.
15 sharesSource ↗
Machine learning, specifically gradient boosting, can accurately predict e-commerce sales, influenced by pricing, promotions, and seasonal factors.
17 sharesSource ↗
Cryptocurrencies and Indian stock market indices are interconnected, with a one-way relationship and temporary reactions to stock market fluctuations.
15 sharesSource ↗
Asset price behavior varies with data frequency, challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis with monthly data persisting, daily data randomly walking, and intraday data being anti-persistent.
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Gold and silver served as a medium-term investment hedge for crude oil during the Russia-Ukraine war, but only a weak safe haven during periods of conflict.
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The article examines the potential and risks of money market trading in the Swiss banking sector, considering the impact of Basel III on cash trading and outlining the necessary skills for money market traders.
8 sharesSource ↗
The research indicates that using machine learning in inflation forecasting can enhance prediction accuracy, particularly in volatile economic conditions.
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The study reveals a negative link between the cost of Chinese managed equity funds and their performance, suggesting a need for expense reduction reforms.
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The research identifies time-variable parameters in the Five-Factor Model, which could affect the model's central asset pricing mechanism.
4 sharesSource ↗
The paper compares the accuracy of Microsoft Translation and Human Translation in translating Thirukural, an ancient Tamil text, into English.
3 sharesSource ↗
The study uncovers a complex interplay between corruption, political instability, inflation, and exchange rate changes in South Africa, highlighting the need for holistic policy solutions.
2 sharesSource ↗
The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.
16 items
The study introduces Rejecting Instruction Preferences (RIP), a method for evaluating data integrity that can filter prompts or create synthetic datasets, enhancing performance across various benchmarks.
230 shares12 citations todaySource ↗
The research presents a method called budget forcing, which uses a small dataset to achieve test-time scaling and improved reasoning performance in language modeling, particularly in competition math questions.
220 shares1,462 citations todaySource ↗
The paper introduces Diverse Preference Optimization (DivPO), an optimization method that generates diverse responses in language models post-training, enhancing diversity in persona attributes and story generation.
204 shares47 citations todaySource ↗
The study proposes Scalable-Softmax (SSMax), a replacement for Softmax in language models, which improves performance in long contexts and key information retrieval, and allows better focus on key information.
108 shares47 citations todaySource ↗
The research identifies underthinking in large language models, where models frequently switch reasoning thoughts, and proposes a decoding strategy to encourage deeper exploration of each reasoning path, improving accuracy across challenging datasets.
105 shares171 citations todaySource ↗
DeepSeek-R1 vs o3-mini: The AI model DeepSeek-R1 has been found to produce more unsafe responses than OpenAI's o3-mini, according to a technical report using the ASTRAL testing tool.
55 shares35 citations todaySource ↗
A study presents a new framework for interpreting actions in causal Bayesian networks, addressing the limitations of current methods and enhancing the understanding of causal representation learning.
24 shares6 citations todaySource ↗
A novel method has been introduced to provide valid confidence intervals when machine learning algorithms fill in missing variables, extending its use to nonuniform samples and various feature subsets.
24 shares21 citations todaySource ↗
Research indicates that language models capable of numeric predictions as decoded strings perform as well as traditional methods for tabular regression tasks.
13 shares11 citations todaySource ↗
Visual Foundation Model for Robotic Manipulation: The new robotic manipulation system, SAM2Act, shows top-tier performance in various environments, and its memory-based version, SAM2Act+, surpasses existing methods in memory-dependent tasks.
10 shares89 citations todaySource ↗
The research investigates the use of Large Language Models in in-context reinforcement learning, showing their effectiveness in learning from rewards but also their limitations in error reasoning.
228 shares28 citations todaySource ↗
Open Language Model Post-Training: The Tulu 3 model, a top-tier post-trained language model, is introduced, outperforming other models and providing a detailed guide for its use and adaptation.
227 shares888 citations todaySource ↗
A new algorithm, SOAP, enhances the computational efficiency of the Shampoo preconditioning method in deep learning tasks, reducing iterations and time, with an online implementation available.
197 shares223 citations todaySource ↗
The article introduces Critique Fine-Tuning (CFT), a new method for training language models that critiques incorrect responses, showing better results than the traditional Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) method in math benchmarks.
110 shares63 citations todaySource ↗
The paper suggests that using hyperbolic geometry in artificial neural networks (ANNs) and machine learning, inspired by the human brain's structure, could improve accuracy and efficiency in various tasks.
55 sharesSource ↗
The research presents the first FP4 training framework for large language models (LLMs), using low-bit arithmetic operations to lessen computational demands, achieving similar accuracy to BF16 and FP8 with slight degradation.
52 shares61 citations todaySource ↗
Papers that shipped their code, from the Papers with Code feed (2023-25).
6 items
Alibaba Cloud Model Studio provides two exclusive models, Qwen2.5Turbo and Qwen2.5Plus, for its hosted solutions.
14,476 shares
This work introduces JanusPro, an upgraded version of the previous Janus model.
13,061 shares
Advancing Language Model PostTraining: Posttraining refines behaviors and develops new skills in recent language models, but open-source methods are not as advanced as proprietary ones.
2,536 shares
The Qwen2.532BInstruct language model has been enhanced with budget forcing, leading to a 27% improvement in solving competition math questions.
430 shares
The study explores the PEFT method in LLMs with MixtureofExperts architecture, revealing that routing distribution is highly concentrated for specific tasks, but the activated experts' distribution varies greatly across tasks.
377 shares
The use of large language models in specialized fields is difficult due to the requirement for profound expertise, despite their remarkable abilities.
316 shares
Repositories the letter featured.
10 items
The article offers a detailed guide on resources for learning about causality in statistics, data science, and physics.
264 shares
The article explores the potential of a transformer with reinforcement learning to enhance the efficiency of a genetic algorithm.
49 shares
The article delves into the idea of completely open data curation for the development of cognitive models.
485 shares
The article provides a review of a textbook focusing on reinforcement learning based on human feedback.
362 shares
The article presents a platform designed for constructing admin panels, internal tools, and dashboards, compatible with 25 databases and any API.
35,457 shares
Industry news: funds, hiring, markets and regulation.
20 items
Fortress Investment Group and Lighthouse Investment Partners are combining their global multistrategy hedge funds to cater to growing investor demand for diverse strategies.
6 shares
Major hedge funds like Walleye Capital and Balyasny Asset Management reported positive returns in January despite early year market instability.
6 shares
Northern Trust Asset Management is growing its global quantitative investment strategies team.
6 shares
Amundi is collaborating with Machina Capital SAS to introduce the Amundi Machina Systematic Equity Fund.
5 shares
LoCorr Funds has introduced the LoCorr Strategic Allocation Fund, a mutual fund designed to maximize equity market gains and minimize losses during market fluctuations.
5 shares
Jason Sippel is leaving his position as co-Head of Global Markets at JPMorgan Chase to join UK hedge fund Rokos Capital Management.
4 shares
Hedge fund investors are shifting from traditional strategies to alternative trades, expecting volatile markets in 2025, says a Barclays survey.
4 shares
The SEC and the CFTC have postponed the compliance date for new Form PF reporting requirements, giving hedge funds and PE managers more time to adjust.
4 shares
Saba Capital's efforts to shake up the UK's £269bn investment trust sector have been blocked as shareholders in two trusts rejected the US hedge fund's board proposals.
4 shares
Hedge funds have been selling off US equities for five weeks in a row, anticipating market instability due to President Trump’s new tariff measures, as per Goldman Sachs’ data.
4 shares
NTAM is expanding its AI and quantitative capabilities in Europe to enhance its asset management services.
4 shares
In January, institutional investors heavily invested in euro zone government debt sales due to higher bond yields and favourable pricing.
3 shares
Live Nation Entertainment and Apple were the most shorted large-cap stocks in the US in December 2024, as per a Hazeltree report.
3 shares
Jun Bei Liu, founder of Ten Cap, plans to double her hedge fund to AUD3bn after separating from Tribeca Investment Partners in October 2024.
3 shares
Guenther Klar, a former Solo Capital Management trader convicted in the CumEx scandal, had his prison sentence reduced by a Danish appeals court.
3 shares
Promeritum Investment Management is shifting its focus away from distressed emerging market dollar bonds after two years of gains, says CoFounder Paval Mamai.
3 shares
The article explores the rising popularity of high frequency trading firms and provides guidance on choosing the right one.
2 shares
Balyasny Asset Management is increasing its Connecticut footprint with a new 10,464 square foot office lease in Stamford.
2 shares
Despite market volatility and political uncertainty, Bridgewater Associates' flagship macro fund, Pure Alpha, gained 8.2% in January.
2 shares
A non-quant, non-engineer employee at Two Sigma has secured a new job.
1 shares
Episodes on markets, quant methods and economics.
10 items
Gayed, O'Brian, and Barrie highlight the significance of diversification in investments, the dangers of concentration, and the advantages of mutual funds and global macro hedge fund strategies.
22 shares
Howard Chan, CEO of Kurv Investment Management, discusses asset allocation, fixed income management, and the advantages of tech-focused ETFs.
12 shares
John Southall emphasizes the importance of FX hedge ratios and shares findings from a century-long analysis of equity market data.
11 shares
The podcast explores the future of US equity exceptionalism, its effects on the dollar, and the forthcoming tariff announcements on February 1st.
8 shares
Goulden and Siddiqui discuss recent market trends and their effects on the EM fixed income asset class.
8 shares
In a podcast, Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent trends in US rates markets as of 31 January 2025.
7 shares
Chris Getter and Anupam Ghose highlight the potential investment opportunities in India's transforming economy and unique market strategies.
5 shares
Mike Maples Jr. shares his approach to investing in successful early-stage companies, emphasizing the need to challenge the status quo and the role of AI in investing.
4 shares
Richard Vague's book The Paradox of Debt examines the effects of private debt on the economy, arguing it's crucial for growth but also brings instability.
3 shares
Rory Johnston talks about the current state of the crude oil market, the effects of Trump's tariff policies, and the significance of crude quality in a MacroVoices podcast.
2 shares
Posts from quant researchers on X.
9 items
Tail Risk Hedging: Former exotic derivatives traders Kris Sidial and Ryan Darnell delivered a lecture on tail risk hedging against BlackSwan events and extreme volatility, hosted by Bloomberg MenthorQ CEO Fabio Ruggeri.
7 shares
A recent study suggests that options are overpriced in early December due to traders overlooking the holiday-induced volatility dip, indicating potential profitability in selling straddles.
4 shares
The latest investment research recap covers a range of topics including alpha in Premier League betting, cryptocurrency, value investing, seasonalities in option returns, large language models, and more.
2 shares
A new study on Premier League betting on Polymarket shows that betting odds adjust slowly after goals, suggesting potential short-term trading opportunities due to delayed reactions.
1 shares
Stoikov's team has released a research paper discussing the significance of market making in the cryptocurrency sector.
1 shares
MIT has published a comprehensive, beginner-friendly book on machine learning basics, available for free.
0 shares
A recent article explores the effect of Deepseek on hyperscalers, AI scalers, AI ecosystems, and AI chip players.
0 shares
DeepSeek's open-source model is significantly impacting AI and markets, posing a challenge to traditional barriers.
0 shares
DE. Shaw's new article examines the increasing financing spread in the S&P 500.
0 shares
Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.
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