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Quant LetterNo. 33

January 2024, Week 3

62 items across 7 sections, as sent to readers on 17 January 2024. Paper titles open their ML-Quant page; ↗ goes to the source.

arXiv

Quantitative-finance and ML-for-finance preprints from arXiv.

19 items

Finance9

01

Cash management models for data fitting

The article introduces a novel method for cash management models using stochastic and linear programming, showing that a small random data sample can effectively fit these models.

9 shares8 citations todaySource ↗

04

Quantum probability asset return modeling

The article suggests a new approach to quantum finance, connecting quantum probability's mathematical structure to traders' decisions and market behaviors, and formulating a Schrödinger-like trading equation to describe the multimodal distribution of asset returns.

4 shares3 citations todaySource ↗

05

SpotV2Net: Intraday Volatility Forecasting

Intraday Volatility Forecasting: The article introduces SpotV2Net, a new model for predicting intraday spot volatility using a Graph Attention Network, which has shown better accuracy in predicting Dow Jones Industrial Average index prices.

4 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

06

Equity Auction Dynamics: Liquidity Models

Liquidity Models: The study applies the latent/revealed order book framework to equity auctions, showing no indicative price predictability and providing accurate model parameter measurements.

3 shares5 citations todaySource ↗

09

Deep Minimizing Movement Method for Option Pricing

The paper introduces a deep learning method for pricing European basket options using Artificial Neural Networks and two methods for discretizing the integral operator, focusing on assets with jump-diffusion dynamics.

2 shares9 citations todaySource ↗

Miscellaneous2

02

Analyzing Herd Behavior in Investment

A study introduces the concept of average deviation to measure the difference between two agents' investment decisions, studying the effect of herd behavior on these decisions.

2 shares6 citations todaySource ↗

Crypto & Blockchain4

01

Backrun Auctions & Trader Protection

The study presents a new laminated queueing model for batched trading on decentralized exchanges, aiming to improve transaction infrastructure and examining the potential for price manipulation by arbitrageurs.

5 sharesSource ↗

02

Transformer-Based ETH Price Prediction

The research uses a transformer-based neural network to forecast Ethereum prices, indicating a strong correlation with other cryptocurrencies and sentiments, and suggests a theory on sentiment-driven illusion of causality in cryptocurrency price movements.

4 shares8 citations todaySource ↗

03

Analysis of Impermanent Loss in DEX

The paper explores the issue of impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges through Monte Carlo simulations, indicating that price changes don't always result in losses for liquidity providers and that an arbitrage-friendly environment is beneficial for them.

3 shares7 citations todaySource ↗

04

Liquidity Provision on DEX

Decentralized exchanges' infrastructure can lead to arbitrage losses for liquidity providers, with design changes offering limited reduction in these losses, as shown in a study using the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

2 sharesSource ↗

Historical Trending4

02

Deep Signature Algorithm for Options

The research expands the backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections to path-dependent FBSDEs, demonstrating the convergence of the numerical algorithm and providing examples of its use.

14 shares15 citations todaySource ↗

SSRN

Working papers in finance and economics from SSRN.

20 items

Quantitative8

02

Model Averaging & Double Machine Learning

The article presents two new stacking methods for double-debiased machine learning (DDML), showing its robustness against unknown functional forms, with software available in Stata and R.

3 shares25 citations todaySource ↗

Financial12

02

Option Flows and Market Instability

The speculative use of call options can cause price instability in the underlying asset's market, even with advanced volatility estimators, as per a study using the MinMaSS stability measure.

8 sharesSource ↗

03

Extreme Liquidity in Asset Modeling

A study using crypto assets indicates that jumps in asset prices are signs of extreme liquidity and can be effectively modeled using autoregressive models adjusted with liquidity.

2 shares2 citations todaySource ↗

05

Extended Overlaps: Optimal Trading Hours in Europe

Optimal Trading Hours in Europe: The article reveals that extended trading hours between North America and Europe during Daylight Saving Time enhances market liquidity and price efficiency, contributing to the discussion on optimal trading hours in Europe.

3 sharesSource ↗

06

Boosting Fund Performance

Mutual funds that match their investments with similar benchmark peers like the S&P 500 index yield higher returns and experience less volatility.

2 sharesSource ↗

08

Global Volatility and Capital Flows

During high volatility periods, institutional investors globally reduce their equity allocations, while retail investors shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks.

2 sharesSource ↗

09

Fear in Finance: FoMO Impact

FoMO Impact: The Fear of Missing Out (FoMO) effect in financial markets boosts equity and cryptocurrency prices and lowers market volatility due to reduced investor disagreement.

2 sharesSource ↗

10

Yelp Sentiment & Asset Pricing

A sentiment index based on Yelp restaurant reviews can predict stock market reversals and mispricing, with pessimism being a key predictive factor.

2 sharesSource ↗

Machine learning

The general machine-learning papers the letter carried in 2023-25.

4 items

Recently Published4

01

Easy Training Data

The study suggests that current language models can effectively generalize from easy to hard data, implying that scalable oversight may be less challenging than previously believed.

94 shares56 citations todaySource ↗

02

Transformers as RNNs

The research shows that decoder-only transformers can be seen as infinite multi-state RNNs and introduces a new policy, TOVA, which performs better in long-range tasks and uses less memory.

152 shares128 citations todaySource ↗

03

TOFU Unlearning for LLMs

The study presents TOFU, a new benchmark for understanding unlearning in large language models, revealing that existing unlearning algorithms are not effective.

22 shares579 citations todaySource ↗

GitHub

Repositories the letter featured.

6 items

Finance3

01

ViTST: Time Series as Images Transformer

Time Series as Images Transformer: NeurIPS 2023 introduces a paper discussing the use of Vision Transformer for analyzing irregularly sampled time series data.

51 shares

Trending3

01

Fast AI Gateway

The article explores a high-speed AI Gateway capable of managing 100 LLMs via a single, user-friendly API.

1,370 shares

02

ChatGPT Web UI

The piece presents a web user interface client for Ollama, modeled after ChatGPT.

3,316 shares

03

Draggable Streamlit Dashboard

The article provides a guide on building a customizable Streamlit dashboard with tools like Material UI widgets, Monaco editor, Visual Studio Code, Nivo charts, etc.

451 shares

Videos

Talks, lectures and tutorials.

4 items

Quantitative4

01

Mastering Python Finance

The Certificate in Python for Finance Program provides in-depth knowledge on financial data science, asset management, algorithmic trading, and computational finance using Python and AI.

5 shares

02

AI and Finance Future

The AFA Panel on AI discusses the influence of AI on the financial sector with panelists from various universities.

11 shares

03

RAW AI in Finance Workshop 3

A screen recording from the Workshop on AI in Finance at Texas State University San Marcos is accessible on GitHub.

0 shares

04

AFA Business Meeting & Awards

The AFA Business Meeting and Presidential Address involves discussions on the future of finance from professionals and academics.

9 shares

X / Twitter

Posts from quant researchers on X.

6 items

Quantitative3

03

BCGs Report: From Potential to Profit with GenAI

From Potential to Profit with GenAI: According to a BCG report, companies investing in GenAI could expect over 10% cost savings, potentially amounting to 1 billion in savings.

0 shares

Miscellaneous3

01

The Rise of Diffusion Models

The article explores the increasing use of diffusion models in timeseries forecasting, detailing 11 specific versions, their theoretical basis, effectiveness on various datasets, and comparisons between them.

0 shares

02

Marimo: Reinventing Jupyter

Reinventing Jupyter: The article presents Marimo, a revamped version of the Jupyter Python notebook, designed to be a reproducible, interactive, and shareable Python program, as opposed to an error-prone JSON scratchpad.

0 shares

03

HBR on Fabrications and LLM Problems

The article reviews the Harvard Business Review's perspective on plausible fabrications and other issues related to LLM in the context of productivity transformation led by LLM.

0 shares

Reddit

Threads from r/quant, r/algotrading and friends.

3 items

Quantitative3

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