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<title>ML-Quant: ML &amp; AI Methods</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/topics/ml-ai-methods/</link><description>Machine-learning methods applied to finance: deep learning, boosting, RL and new architectures.</description>
<language>en</language>
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<item><title>Propose, Don't Judge: An Anytime-Valid Referee for LLM Agents That Mine Investment Factors</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2609.27051/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2609.27051/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Proposes a statistical referee that judges investment factors proposed by language-model agents using out-of-sample market outcomes, ensuring false-discovery control at any stopping time.</description></item>
<item><title>AlphaDiverse: Post-Training Local Quantitative Research Agents for Diverse Exploration in Alpha Factor Mining</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2609.29014/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2609.29014/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Proposes a multi-agent system with post-training that automates alpha factor mining locally, using diverse research paths and joint optimization to broaden exploration while maintaining prediction quality.</description></item>
<item><title>Forecast-Dojo: Replayable Environments for Benchmarking and Training LLM Forecasting Agents</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2609.28876/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2609.28876/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Introduces a replayable environment combining 1,568 resolved prediction-market questions with 18.8M dated news articles to benchmark and train language-model forecasting agents on historical data.</description></item>
<item><title>Artificial intelligence and financial markets</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7515878/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7515878/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>A survey examines how AI transforms information production, intermediation, and market structure, with implications for efficiency, competition and financial stability.</description></item>
<item><title>Label alchemy: Target engineering for improved stock selection</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7494298/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7494298/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Reshaping the prediction target through location, scale and shape transformations raises long-short Sharpe from 0.68 to 1.69, with label choice mattering more than model choice.</description></item>
<item><title>Memorisation or Alpha? Detecting Look-Ahead Contamination in Cross-Sectional Equity Signals</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7490302/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7490302/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Testing whether a large language model ranks stocks by forecasting or memory, the study finds a significant information-coefficient gap of 0.185 inside versus outside its training window, suggesting substantial look-ahead contamination.</description></item>
<item><title>Beta Recall, Alpha Recall, and a Contamination Detector that Needs No Labels * Measuring Training-data Leakage in LLM Equity Signals</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7485818/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7485818/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The study measures recall versus forecasting in an LLM's stock rankings by comparing cross-sectional information coefficients inside and outside the training window.</description></item>
<item><title>Execution-Aware Alpha Mining: Teaching LLM Factor Agents to Account for Trading Costs</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7498983/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7498983/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The paper builds a closed-loop system where an LLM proposes equity factors penalized for execution costs and shows that accounting for trading costs dramatically improves net performance.</description></item>
<item><title>Assessing the Benefits of Optimized Agentic AI Systems for Asset Pricing</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/nbr-nberwo-35431/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/nbr-nberwo-35431/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Optimized AI systems analyzing earnings call transcripts double explained variation in stock returns versus standard benchmarks while improving interpretability through human-readable decision rules.</description></item>
<item><title>Predicting Financial Market Stress with Machine Learning</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cpr-ceprdp-20439/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cpr-ceprdp-20439/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Tree-based machine learning models predict the full distribution of financial market stress 27% better than traditional time-series methods, with macro uncertainty and monetary policy expectations as key drivers.</description></item>
<item><title>Ex Machina: Financial Stability in the Age of Artificial Intelligence</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cpr-ceprdp-20681/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cpr-ceprdp-20681/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Q-learning and large language model investors generate systematically different behaviors in fund redemption settings, with Q-learning showing excessive coordination and amplified fragility under default risk.</description></item>
<item><title>Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Automation More Attractive than Full Automation?</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2603.29121/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2603.29121/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The paper discusses a model that suggests combining human effort with partial automation is usually cheaper and more effective than fully automating complex tasks.</description></item>
<item><title>The Inference Bottleneck: Antitrust and Neutrality Duties in the Age of Cognitive Infrastructure</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2602.22750/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2602.22750/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The article explains that the rise of generative AI is changing competition by focusing on ongoing decision-making, which can lead to unfair practices in the market. It suggests a solution called Neutral Inference to promote fairness and transparency.</description></item>
<item><title>Bounded Normative Equivalence in Human-AI Cooperation: Group Behaviour, Not Partner Labels, Predicts Cooperation under Anonymous Aggregate Feedback</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2601.20487/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2601.20487/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2026 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>AI agents in group settings can influence cooperation just like humans do, showing that social norms can adjust for both AI and human participants.</description></item>
<item><title>Gingado: A Machine Learning Library Focused on Economics and Finance</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4482553/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4482553/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>ML for Economics: Gingado is a developing Python library that helps incorporate machine learning into economic research by enhancing datasets and evaluating models.</description></item>
<item><title>Decoding the Unique Price Behavior in the Japanese Stock Market with Convolutional Neural Networks</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4478013/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4478013/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Analyzing Japanese stock charts with CNN reveals predictive patterns for returns, independent of common momentum trends.</description></item>
<item><title>The Banker in Your Social Network</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4466139/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4466139/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The research indicates that social financial advice significantly boosts stock market participation, especially through close social ties.</description></item>
<item><title>SigMA: Path Signatures and Multi-head Attention for Learning Parameters in fBm-driven SDEs</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.15088/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.15088/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The SigMA neural architecture improves parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations using path signatures and self-attention, outperforming traditional methods across multiple datasets.</description></item>
<item><title>Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.14967/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.14967/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>A new numerical method combines elicitability and deep learning for McKean-Vlasov stochastic equations, enabling efficient training of neural networks without expensive simulations, tested successfully on financial models.</description></item>
<item><title>Adaptive Partitioning and Learning for Stochastic Control of Diffusion Processes</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.14991/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.14991/</guid><pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>An adaptive reinforcement learning algorithm enhances learning in controlled diffusion processes by partitioning state-action spaces, providing theoretical guarantees and effective results in applications like portfolio selection.</description></item>
<item><title>Reinforcement Learning in Financial Decision Making: A Systematic Review of Performance, Challenges, and Implementation Strategies</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.10913/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.10913/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Reinforcement learning improves financial decision-making by simplifying complex investment problems, emphasizing clear explanations and strong reliability over complex algorithms.</description></item>
<item><title>When Medical AI Explanations Help and When They Harm</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.08424/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.08424/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>AIgenerated explanations can improve decision-making when algorithms are right, but can mislead when they're wrong, highlighting a paradox in AI transparency for doctors.</description></item>
<item><title>Measuring Computer Science Enthusiasm: A Questionnaire-Based Analysis of Age and Gender Effects on Students' Interest</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.08472/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.08472/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Research indicates that age affects students' interest in computer science more than gender, suggesting educational approaches should consider developmental changes to boost engagement.</description></item>
<item><title>The Adoption and Usage of AI Agents: Early Evidence from Perplexity</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.07828/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2512.07828/</guid><pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>A study of AI agent use with the Comet browser reveals that personal productivity and learning are the main reasons users interact with these tools.</description></item>
<item><title>AI-Powered Direct Indexing: Exploring Thematic Universes for Enhanced Risk-Adjusted Returns</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4977007/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4977007/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The research presents FINDALL, a search engine that effectively identifies relevant stocks for direct indexing, outperforming traditional ETFs with lower costs.</description></item>
<item><title>The Risk-Adjusted Intelligence Dividend: A Quantitative Framework for Measuring AI Return on Investment Integrating ISO 42001 and Regulatory Exposure</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2511.21975/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2511.21975/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Organizations using AI face challenges in traditional ROI calculations due to risks, leading to a new framework that includes risk assessments.</description></item>
<item><title>Standardized Threat Taxonomy for AI Security, Governance, and Regulatory Compliance</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2511.21901/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2511.21901/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>The use of AI in regulated industries exposes gaps between technical risk assessments and compliance, prompting a new taxonomy for AI risk evaluation and financial impacts.</description></item>
<item><title>Tacit Bidder-Side Collusion: Artificial Intelligence in Dynamic Auctions</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2511.21802/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2511.21802/</guid><pubDate>Mon, 01 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Research shows that large language models can indirectly collaborate in Dutch auctions to increase prices, influenced by market structure.</description></item>
<item><title>The Economics of AI Training Data: A Research Agenda</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2510.24990/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2510.24990/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Lays out data economics: why data is special, documents AI training-data deals, proposes a hierarchy of data units, and lists key research questions.</description></item>
<item><title>Estimating Nationwide High-Dosage Tutoring Expenditures: A Predictive Model Approach</title><link>https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2510.24899/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2510.24899/</guid><pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2025 07:00:00 +0000</pubDate><description>Machine learning on incomplete ESSER plans estimates U.S. school districts spent about $2.2 billion on high‑dosage tutoring during COVID.</description></item>
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