---
title: Do Option Markets Predict the Nasdaq-100? Pre-Registered Tests on QQQ Option Chains, Event Nights and Positioning Signals
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7687260/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-14
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7687260
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7687260
featured: 2026-11-13
citations: unknown
topic: Derivatives & Volatility
---


# Do Option Markets Predict the Nasdaq-100? Pre-Registered Tests on QQQ Option Chains, Event Nights and Positioning Signals

Tests 15 pre-registered option strategies and published signals on Nasdaq-100 options with real execution costs, finding none produce tradable edges after correcting for multiple comparisons.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7687260
- Identifier: SSRN 7687260
- Released: 2026-11-12
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 139 (2026-11-13): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-13/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Derivatives & Volatility
- Authors: Dharm Desai

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