---
title: Scoring Informed Trading in Prediction Markets: A Likelihood Ratio Framework
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7670998/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-06
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7670998
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7670998
featured: 2026-11-06
citations: unknown
topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
---


# Scoring Informed Trading in Prediction Markets: A Likelihood Ratio Framework

A likelihood-ratio framework ranks wallets by their information content in binary prediction markets, separating ranking from multiple testing and validating the method through simulation.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7670998
- Identifier: SSRN 7670998
- Released: 2026-10-31
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 138 (2026-11-06): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-06/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
- Authors: Ahura Azadi

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