---
title: What do Earnings Prediction Markets Know?
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7667338/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-30
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7667338
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7667338
featured: 2026-10-30
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# What do Earnings Prediction Markets Know?

Polymarket earnings contracts incrementally improve forecasts by incorporating public information missed by analysts, though only in the final trading day before announcements.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7667338
- Identifier: SSRN 7667338
- Released: 2026-10-30
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 137 (2026-10-30): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-30/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Tengfei Zhang

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