---
title: Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows and Bitcoin Returns: Timestamp Alignment and Asymmetric Feedback
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7545019/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-02
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7545019
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7545019
featured: 2026-10-02
citations: unknown
topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
---


# Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows and Bitcoin Returns: Timestamp Alignment and Asymmetric Feedback

Correcting for timestamp mismatch between ETF and Bitcoin markets, the study finds that same-day flows predict next-day returns at 1.67 percentage points per billion of inflow, while prior Bitcoin returns predict flows.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7545019
- Identifier: SSRN 7545019
- Released: 2026-09-30
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 133 (2026-10-02): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-02/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Trading, Microstructure & Execution
- Authors: Juraj Fabus, Lukas Vartiak, Natalia Stalmasekova, Eva Kicova

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