---
title: The Rollover Clock: Debt Maturity, the Central-Bank Balance Sheet, and the Debt Limit of a Reserve-Currency Sovereign
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7542158/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-02
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 7542158
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7542158
featured: 2026-10-02
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# The Rollover Clock: Debt Maturity, the Central-Bank Balance Sheet, and the Debt Limit of a Reserve-Currency Sovereign

Rollover clock measurement of consolidated Treasury and central bank liability repricing predicts U.S. Treasury interest rates and prices inflation costs of fiscal deficits.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7542158
- Identifier: SSRN 7542158
- Released: 2026-10-01
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 133 (2026-10-02): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-02/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
- Authors: Ningpei Ding

## Related

- [Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Legal Tender Digital Currency on Monetary Policy -Based on China's Data](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2310.07326/): The paper suggests that China should develop a more effective monetary policy while promoting Central bank digital currencies, examining their impact on China's monetary policy and money supply multiplier.
- [Banking-System Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: High-Frequency Shocks, Local Projections, and Regime Dependence](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7519040/): A 100-basis-point contractionary monetary shock lowers inflation and sales across 20 euro-area economies, with transmission strength varying by bank asset-risk exposure and assets-to-GDP ratio rather than a simple weak-strong taxonomy.
- [Inflation—Who Cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2105.05297/): Who Cares?: The decrease in public attention to inflation after the Great Inflation period in the U.S. complicates managing inflation expectations and can lead to inflation-attention traps, suggesting a need to increase the inflation target.
- [Post-COVID inflation and the monetary policy dilemma: an agent-based scenario analysis](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2306.01284/): A new modelling approach using the Mark-0 Agent-Based Model explores the impact of regulatory policies on inflationary dynamics resulting from COVID-19-related shocks.
- [Global Debt, Currency Mismatch, and the Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7541599/): US monetary tightening triggers larger currency depreciation and sovereign stress in emerging markets when global public debt is high and foreign-currency debt exposure is elevated.
- [Monetary Policy and Bond Return Decomposition Across Regimes](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7549733/): The research decomposes bond returns into real rates, risk premia, and inflation expectations, finding that forward guidance and asset purchases had opposite effects at the zero lower bound versus normal times.