---
title: Bitcoin and Ethereum GARCH Volatility Forecasting
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4921210/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4921210
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4921210
featured: 2024-08-15
citations: unknown
topic: Crypto & DeFi
---


# Bitcoin and Ethereum GARCH Volatility Forecasting

The study demonstrates that Bitcoin and Ethereum returns have similar statistical characteristics to other financial returns, with the two-component GJR model being the most accurate for predicting future volatility.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4921210
- Identifier: SSRN 4921210
- Released: 2024-08-09
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 61 (2024-08-15): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-08-15/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Crypto & DeFi

## Related

- [Predicting Cryptocurrency Volatility](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eee-finlet-v-67-y-2024-i-pa-s1544612324007876/): The SHARV-MGJR model, which includes volatility leverage effects and current return data, is suggested for better prediction of cryptocurrency market volatility, surpassing GARCH-type models in tests.
- [Bitcoin Volatility Forecasting with PSO–GRU Model](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/kap-compec-v-63-y-2024-i-5-d-10-1007-s10614-023-10392-5/): Scientists have created a deep learning model that enhances the accuracy of Bitcoin's volatility predictions, offering investors a dependable risk warning system and trading strategy.
- [Forecasting Volatility in Crypto-Winter](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/spr-digfin-v-6-y-2024-i-4-d-10-1007-s42521-024-00108-1/): The research expands the use of a volatility prediction framework using LSTM and rough volatility, demonstrating its superiority over traditional models in predicting cryptocurrency volatility.
- [Improved Cryptocurrency Volatility Predictions](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/eee-ecmode-v-144-y-2025-i-c-s0264999324003432/): The study reveals that combining different forecasting models can greatly enhance the accuracy of predicting cryptocurrency volatility. This can provide crucial information for investors looking to improve risk management strategies in cryptocurrency markets.
- [Volatility Estimators for Cryptocurrencies](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/gam-jstats-v-6-y-2023-i-4-p-82-1370-d-1298480/): The paper studies the realized volatility of cryptocurrencies, showing that the best predictors for Bitcoin and Ethereum come from 30-day implied volatility.
- [Bitcoin Volatility Estimation Model](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/hig-ecohse-2022-4-6/): The study suggests two semi-nonparametric GARCH models for more precise estimation of Bitcoin volatility dynamics, showing their superiority over traditional GARCH models.
