---
title: Term Spreads and Recessions
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4836614/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4836614
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4836614
featured: 2024-05-22
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# Term Spreads and Recessions

Research shows that credit market sentiment affects the real economy through the term premium, with term spreads predicting recessions and affecting future growth.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4836614
- Identifier: SSRN 4836614
- Released: 2024-05-20
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 50 (2024-05-22): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-05-22/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates

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