---
title: Harnessing Volatility Cascades with Ensemble Learning
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4682793/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: SSRN 4682793
source_url: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4682793
featured: 2024-01-09
citations: 2
topic: Derivatives & Volatility
---


# Harnessing Volatility Cascades with Ensemble Learning

A modification to the base learner in bootstrap aggregation and boosting can significantly improve predictive accuracy in volatility forecasting, addressing substantial errors from parameter estimation.

- Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4682793
- Identifier: SSRN 4682793
- Released: 2024-01-01
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 32 (2024-01-09): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2024-01-09/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): 2
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Derivatives & Volatility

## Related

- [SpotV2Net: Multivariate Intraday Spot Volatility Forecasting via Vol-of-Vol-Informed Graph Attention Networks](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2401.06249/): Intraday Volatility Forecasting: The article introduces SpotV2Net, a new model for predicting intraday spot volatility using a Graph Attention Network, which has shown better accuracy in predicting Dow Jones Industrial Average index prices.
- [TimesNet for Realized Volatility Prediction](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4660025/): The study shows that the TimesNet model is effective in predicting stock volatility, particularly during extreme market movements, making it a strong neural network benchmark in volatility research.
- [TSMixer and Realized Volatility Prediction](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4713756/): Stock Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks: The TSMixer neural network model has proven to be more effective than traditional models in predicting stock market volatility, indicating a possible shift towards simpler models in the future.
- [Stock Volatility Prediction Based on Transformer Model Using Mixed-Frequency Data](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2309.16196/): A new model combining macroeconomic indicators, stock technical indicators, and Baidu search indices significantly improves stock volatility prediction, reducing error from 1.00 to 0.86.
- [Combining Deep Learning and GARCH Models for Financial Volatility and Risk Forecasting](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2310.01063/): The research introduces a hybrid method for predicting the volatility and risk of financial tools by merging GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks, finding that while this approach improves volatility predictions, it doesn't necessarily enhance Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasts.
- [Improving Realised Volatility Forecast for Emerging Markets](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4584573/): A study comparing four models for forecasting volatility in emerging markets found the HAR model best for long-term volatility and realised GARCH models for volatility clustering and persistence.
