---
title: Explainable AI Reveals Bond Excess Return Determinants
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/spr-jbecon-v-93-y-2023-i-9-d-10-1007-s11573-023-01149-5/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-09-26
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:spr:jbecon:v:93:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s11573-023-01149-5
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs11573-023-01149-5%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aspr%3Ajbecon%3Av%3A93%3Ay%3A2023%3Ai%3A9%3Ad%3A10.1007_s11573-023-01149-5
featured: 2023-11-02
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# Explainable AI Reveals Bond Excess Return Determinants

The SHapley Additive exPlanations technique is used in a paper to identify key factors influencing bond excess return predictions made by machine learning models.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs11573-023-01149-5%3Bh%3Drepec%3Aspr%3Ajbecon%3Av%3A93%3Ay%3A2023%3Ai%3A9%3Ad%3A10.1007_s11573-023-01149-5
- Identifier: RePEc:spr:jbecon:v:93:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s11573-023-01149-5
- Released: 2023-11-02
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 24 (2023-11-02): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2023-11-02/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates

## Related

- [An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach in Predicting Inflation Using Payments System Data: A Case Study of Indonesia](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2506.10369/): A study shows machine learning algorithms, particularly the Extreme Gradient Boosting model, are more effective than traditional methods in predicting Indonesia's inflation.
- [Exchange Rates Forecasting with Interpretable Machine Learning](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/taf-apeclt-v-30-y-2023-i-15-p-2052-2059/): The Light Gradient Boosting Machine model has been found to be the most effective at predicting 12 exchange rates due to its ability to extract short-term information and robustness on small datasets.
- [Forecasting Inflation Spikes with Machine Learning](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4610424/): A study using machine learning predicts spikes in the U.S. inflation rate with an accuracy of 87.27%.
- [Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Legal Tender Digital Currency on Monetary Policy -Based on China's Data](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2310.07326/): The paper suggests that China should develop a more effective monetary policy while promoting Central bank digital currencies, examining their impact on China's monetary policy and money supply multiplier.
- [Corporate Bond Factors: Replication Failures and a New Framework](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4586652/): The study criticizes inconsistent methodologies in corporate bond factors literature, suggesting a robust factor construction and a clean database for corporate bond returns.
- [A systematic review of early warning systems in finance](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2310.00490/): The bibliometric review studies the research on early warning systems in finance, emphasizing the shift towards machine learning methods and the importance of using both macroeconomic and microeconomic data for better predictive accuracy.
