---
title: The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Expectations: High-Frequency Evidence from Prediction Markets
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/nbr-nberwo-35968/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-14
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35968
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35968
featured: 2026-11-13
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Expectations: High-Frequency Evidence from Prediction Markets

Prediction market data on macroeconomic outcomes show Fed rate hikes affect expectations through standard transmission channels, not through an information effect.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35968
- Identifier: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35968
- Released: 2026-11-09
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 139 (2026-11-13): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-13/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Eric T. Swanson, Wang Renxuan, Yanbin Wu

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