---
title: Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/hal-journl-hal-05740995/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-09
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05740995
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05740995
featured: 2026-10-09
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

Treasury yield curve slope volatility forecasts industrial production and employment growth at medium and long horizons, outperforming term spread alone after the 2008 crisis.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05740995
- Identifier: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05740995
- Released: 2026-10-05
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 134 (2026-10-09): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-09/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Anastasios Megaritis, Dimitrios Bakas, Theodora Bermpei, Athanasios Triantafyllou

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