---
title: Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/fip-feddwp-103848/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-10-23
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:fip:feddwp:103848
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddwp:103848
featured: 2026-10-23
citations: unknown
topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
---


# Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve

Research finds that rising import exposure accounts for roughly 40 percent of U.S. Phillips curve flattening since 1976, with major implications for monetary policy trade-offs.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddwp:103848
- Identifier: RePEc:fip:feddwp:103848
- Released: 2026-10-12
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 136 (2026-10-23): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-10-23/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Econometrics & Forecasting
- Authors: Colin J. Hottman, Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles

## Related

- [The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2305.12318/): Quantitative easing positively affected US GDP but did not impact inflation.
- [From Tone to Trajectory: Continuous Sentiment and the Shape of Monetary Policy Communication (Martin Feldkircher, Márton Kardos, Kristoffer Laigaard Nielbo)](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/onb-oenbwp-281/): The sequencing and emphasis of sentiment within central bank statements predict rate decisions and inflation expectations beyond average tone alone.
- [Deep-$π^*$: A Neural Network Estimate of Trend Inflation](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2610.26298/): Deep-π* attributes trend inflation movements to macroeconomic indicators via neural networks, forecasting inflation more accurately than classical models and signaling the 2021 surge earlier.
- [Do Markets Dream of Artificial Intelligence? Macroeconomic Effects and International Spillovers of AI News Shocks](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/dnb-dnbwpp-871/): The research identifies AI news shocks from equity factors and shows they trigger investment-led US growth but create monetary dilemmas via imported inflation in the euro area.
- [Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy and the Transmission of Monetary Policy](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/nbr-nberwo-35831/): Evidence from a multi-country survey shows that heterogeneous beliefs about how monetary policy works significantly alter households' consumption responses to rate changes.
- [Tariffs, production networks and spillovers: the case of a US-China trade war](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/bde-wpaper-2632e/): A tariff war model shows asymmetric impacts, with the imposing country bearing inflationary burden and the target experiencing larger output contraction via production network propagation.