---
title: Wars, Threats, and the Sovereign Bond Market
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/diw-diwwpp-dp2186/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-06
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2186
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2186
featured: 2026-11-06
citations: unknown
topic: Risk, Credit & Banking
---


# Wars, Threats, and the Sovereign Bond Market

Analysis of 300,000 monthly bond prices since 1822 shows wars lower external bond returns by five percentage points and raise default risk, while military threats depress threatened states' borrowing costs.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2186
- Identifier: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2186
- Released: 2026-11-02
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 138 (2026-11-06): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-06/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Risk, Credit & Banking
- Authors: Jonathan Federle, Robin Greenwood, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch

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