---
title: Target and Path Surprises in Brazil: Monetary Policy Announcements, Yield Curves, and Inflation Expectations
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cdp-texdis-td705/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-06
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td705
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdp:texdis:td705
featured: 2026-11-06
citations: unknown
topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
---


# Target and Path Surprises in Brazil: Monetary Policy Announcements, Yield Curves, and Inflation Expectations

Analysis of COPOM announcements reveals target and path surprises move the yield curve differently, with nonlinear effects and sign asymmetries in inflation expectation responses.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdp:texdis:td705
- Identifier: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td705
- Released: 2026-11-02
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 138 (2026-11-06): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-06/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Macro-Finance & Rates
- Authors: Frederico Bastone, Mauro Sayar Ferreira

## Related

- [Jawboning the Fed: Do Markets Listen When Administrations Talk?](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2610.32300/): Analysis of four decades of news finds dovish political pressure lowers near-term rate expectations by roughly one basis point per event, while hawkish pressure shows no effect.
- [Inflation—Who Cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2105.05297/): Who Cares?: The decrease in public attention to inflation after the Great Inflation period in the U.S. complicates managing inflation expectations and can lead to inflation-attention traps, suggesting a need to increase the inflation target.
- [Post-COVID inflation and the monetary policy dilemma: an agent-based scenario analysis](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2306.01284/): A new modelling approach using the Mark-0 Agent-Based Model explores the impact of regulatory policies on inflationary dynamics resulting from COVID-19-related shocks.
- [Monetary Policy, Expected Dividend Growth, and the Equity Risk Premium](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7671839/): Using equity and risk-free rate term structures, monetary policy shocks affect both expected dividend growth and equity risk premium, with effects beyond duration matching.
- [Beyond monetary policy: Macroprudential responses to inflationary shocks](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/ptu-wpaper-w202609/): Pre-emptive, countercyclical macroprudential tools strengthen banking resilience and dampen external shocks in a monetary union, while procyclical tightening worsens outcomes.
- [Monetary-Policy Risk and Equilibrium Asset Prices](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/7585438/): Asset prices respond to monetary policy uncertainty around FOMC announcements; a New Keynesian model shows policy risk accounts for much of equity and inflation-bond risk premia and weakens activity when elevated.
