---
title: Commercial Real Estate Uncertainty
url: https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/bav-wpaper-252-dietl-nguyen-rdf/
site: ML-Quant (https://www.ml-quant.com)
updated: 2026-11-06
license: Summaries CC BY 4.0; links go to the original sources
index: https://www.ml-quant.com/llms.txt
identifier: RePEc:bav:wpaper:252_dietl_nguyen.rdf
source_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bav:wpaper:252_dietl_nguyen.rdf
featured: 2026-11-06
citations: unknown
topic: Asset Pricing & Factors
---


# Commercial Real Estate Uncertainty

A new uncertainty index for commercial real estate predicts prices and construction spending and accounts for 46 percent of spending forecast errors, outperforming existing uncertainty measures.

- Source: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bav:wpaper:252_dietl_nguyen.rdf
- Identifier: RePEc:bav:wpaper:252_dietl_nguyen.rdf
- Released: 2026-11-02
- First featured: Quant Letter No. 138 (2026-11-06): https://www.ml-quant.com/issues/2026-11-06/
- Citations (Semantic Scholar): not tracked
- Published in: not yet
- Topic: Asset Pricing & Factors
- Authors: Vanessa Dietl, Gabriel Lee

## Related

- [Bubble economics](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/arxiv/2311.03638/): Nonstationary Phenomenon: The article discusses the theory of rational asset price bubbles, highlighting that bubbles linked to real assets like stocks and housing are nonstationary phenomena tied to unbalanced growth.
- [Reassessing the 2000s Housing Cycle After Two Decades of Research](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/nbr-nberwo-35863/): A synthesis of two decades of research attributes the housing boom to improved fundamentals, credit expansion, rate declines, and shifting expectations, with defaults driving the bust.
- [Real Estate Exposure Analysis](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/ssrn/4947546/): Research shows both listed and unlisted real estate assets can protect against inflation, with listed real estate more exposed to short-term risk premium shocks.
- [National Housing Market Bubble in the United States](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/cup-macdyn-v-27-y-2023-i-8-p-2191-2228-7/): The study uses a dynamic factor model to examine the role of the national factor in US house price fluctuations, hinting at a possible national bubble since 2014.
- [Real Estate Prices and Global Shock](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/zbw-cfswop-285368/): The study finds that the 2020 pandemic had only temporary negative effects on German real estate rents and increased asset prices, using causal machine learning.
- [US House Price Dynamics](https://www.ml-quant.com/papers/repec/bla-reesec-v-52-y-2024-i-2-p-434-485/): The article presents a new estimator that includes cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependency in machine learning, greatly enhancing the prediction of house prices and detection of housing market bubbles.