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Jonathan Regenstein

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36
Date
2022/12/31
ML Score
3
Job
Truist Securities | Head of Data and Quantamental Research
Content
just making my way through Housing is the Business Cycle by Edward Leamer, and thanks for the recommendation Francois Trahan.I will reproduce a few results from the paper over the weekend. Attached is a quick chart showing residential investment as percent of GDP, with recessions shaded pink. The time series goes back to 1950. This time series tends to peak in advance of recessions and trough at the end of recessions. If the current trend continues downward, it's further confirmation of a recession in 2023. This chart wasn't on my radar until now. Highly recommend the Leamer paper!
Property
Integromat
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